基于传染病动力学模型的新疆手足口病流行的预测与控制分析  

Application and Analysis of Seasonal Dynamic Model in the Hand-foot-mouth Disease Epidemic of Xinjiang

作　　者：罗冬梅[1] 徐加波[2] 冯兴 廖影 王坤 石永芳[1] LUO Dong-mei;XU Jia-bo;FENG Xing;LIAO Ying;WANG Kun;SHI Yong-fang(College of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830054,China;College of Information Engineering,Xinjiang Institute of Engineering,Urumqi 830091,China;College of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830054,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆工程学院信息工程系,新疆乌鲁木齐830091 [3]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第22期154-160,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：大学生创新性实验计划([CX2016003);国家自然科学基金(11461073,11301451)

摘　　要：基于公共卫生科学数据中心系统发布的2009-2014年的新疆手足口病月新发数据，构建季节性动力学模型，预测长期波动趋势。发现建立的季节性动力学模型能较好拟合出手足口病季节性高发的周期规律，预测2028年新发病数量达到最低谷，大约为4250例，随后逐渐升高并趋于平稳。估计出基本再生数R0≈1。1668，表明疫病还将持续流行。通过模型参数的敏感性分析得到的控制策略有：加强感染者隔离率；提高感染者恢复率；抑制隐性感染者恢复率。Objective To establish a seasonal dynamic model, fitting and predict the epidemic trend of new hand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD） in Xinjiang. At the same time, we explore effective strategy to control HFMD epidemic. Methods According to the HFMD transmission mechanism analysis, we propose a seasonal dynamic model with periodic transmission rate. Based on the monthly new HFMD data from 2009 to 2014, we forecast the fluctuation tendency for long-term. We carry out the parameters sensitivity analysis in term of basic reproduction number R0 and make some eliminate measures. Results Seasonal dynamics model SEIIeQR can be better fitting out the high incidence of seasonal and periodic laws. We predict that the number of new HFMD will reduce to 4250 in 2028, then gradually raised and leveled off. We evaluate the basic reproduction number R0≈1.1668, it indicate that the disease will persist, under the current control measures. The parameters sensitivity analysis in terms of R0 determines the fellow strategy： strengthen the infected isolation rate; improve the infected recovery rate; inhibition the recessive infected recovery rate. Conclusion The established seasonal dynamic model is suitable for fitting and forecast the epidemic trend of new HFMD in Xinjiang, and the control measures for put forward with scientific rationality.

关 键 词：手足口病 动力学模型 拟合 预测 基本再生数 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学] R725.1[理学—基础数学]