蒙特卡洛法在油气储量估算中的应用  

APPLICATIONS OF THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD TO THE PETROLEUM RESERVES ESTIMATION

作　　者：文环明[1] 肖慈珣[1] 李薇[2] 智刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学信息工程学院,成都610059 [2]河南油田研究院

出　　处：《成都理工学院学报》2002年第5期487-492,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Technology

摘　　要：详细论述了蒙特卡洛法的数学原理及其在油气储量估算中的具体使用方法 ,并通过应用实例说明在油气田的不同勘探开发阶段 ,根据拥有资料的多少选用适当的数学模型 ,利用蒙特卡洛法都可以估算出一个具有一定可信度的比较合理的油气储量数值。当一个区块勘探程度较高 ,拥有资料较多时 ,用蒙特卡洛法估算的储量与用容积法估算的储量比较接近。The Monte-Carlo method is a probabilistic statistical method or statistical simulated method. It can be used to estimate the petroleum reserves during the different periods of petroleum exploration. This paper in detail describes the mathematical theory of the Monte-Carlo method and its usage in the petroleum reserves estimation. The example shows that the available petroleum reserves values with certain reliability can be estimated by the Monte-Carlo method when the appropriate mathematical models are selected during the different periods of the petroleum exploration and development. The reserves estimated by the Monte-Carlo method approach to that by the volume method if an area is prospected in detail and a lot of data are obtained.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛法 概率统计 储量估算 储层评价 油气勘探 数学模型 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学] TE13[天文地球—地质学]