宁波道路集装箱运力规模预测——供需平衡法和GM(1,1)模型的对比研究  

Prediction of Ningbo road container transportation capacity based on comparing supply-demand balance and GM(1,1) model

作　　者：何凤云[1] 郑彭军[1] 黄正锋[1] HE Feng-yun;ZHENG Peng-jun;HUANG Zheng-feng(Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学海运学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2017年第4期116-120,共5页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51408321);浙江省自然科学基金(LY15E080013)

摘　　要：集装箱运输运力的正确估计对集装箱运输有重要意义.以2009~2015年宁波集卡数、集装箱吞吐量数据为基础,分别应用供需平衡法和GM(1,1)模型对宁波集卡数进行预测,比较两种模型的预测精度及拟合度.结果表明:GM(1,1)模型可以较好地降低预测风险,提高预测准确度和拟合度.最终选用GM(1,1)对宁波道路集装箱运力规模进行预测.The reasonable estimation of transportation capacity is of great importance for the containertransportation.Based on the throughput of both container trucks and containers from year2009to2015inNingbo,the need of container trucks is first predicted by both supply-demand balance method and GM(1,1)model method,then compared against prediction accuracy and curve fitting of them.Results show that theprediction accuracy and curve fitting are improved better using GM(1,1)method than the other approach,whichwill remarkably cut down the prediction risk.At last,GM(1,1)method is chosen for predicting the containertransportation capacity.

关 键 词：公路运输 集装箱运力 供需平衡法 GM(1 1) 预测 

分 类 号：U489[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]