多种方法集成的企业技术预见研究  

Multiple Methods of Integrated Business Technology Foresight Study

作　　者：刘闯 陈舒 孙琳琳[2] 吴楠 Liu Chuang;Chen Shu;Sun Linlin;Wu Nan(Science and Technology Innovation Management Center,Jilin Province Changchun 130012,China;Institute of Machinery,Jilin University,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省科技创新平台管理中心,长春130012 [2]吉林大学机械学院,长春130000

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2017年第10期151-156,共6页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：吉林省创新方法推广与应用示范(项目编号:2016IM020400)

摘　　要：本文基于预测市场和S曲线理论两种技术预见理论,通过预测市场在西门子和惠普两大公司的运用,凸显出了预测市场的优缺点;另外,通过S曲线描述了柯达公司的兴衰趋势以及其对手富士公司的成功转型,这其中也体现S曲线的可靠性和不足。同时,借鉴富士公司及很多优秀公司的成功逆袭,也使得作者把两种预见技术进行有机融合,取长补短,帮助企业更为准确预测其技术的发展趋势,抢先把握企业的核心竞争力,为企业长远的发展做好充分准备。In this article,based on prediction markets and S-curve theory of technology foresight,wepredict the use of the market in Siemens and HP,highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the predictionmarket.In addition,the author through the S-curve describes the rise and fall of Kodak trends and the successof its rival Fuji company restructuring,which also refl ect the reliability of S-curve and inadequate.Meanwhile,the research reference Fuji company and the success of many excellent companies counter attack,also allowedthe author to intergrate the two foresee technology,learn from each other and help enterprises to more accuratelypredict the technology trends,grasp the core competitiveness of enterprises,for enterprises to prepare for longtermdevelopment.

关 键 词：技术预见 TRIZ理论 S曲线 预测市场 富士胶卷 柯达 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]