基于三参数Burr分布的车头时距分布特性研究  

Research of time headway distribution based on three parameters burr distribution

作　　者：郭香妍[1] 李炯华 吴淑博 罗强[1] 臧晓冬[1] GUO Xiangyan;LI Jionghua;WU Shubo;LUO Qiang;ZANG Xiaodong(School of Civil Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学土木工程学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2017年第12期2739-2743,共5页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

摘　　要：通过研究发现,车头时距的随机过程与Burr分布函数具有相似特性,为此提出三参数Burr分布来描述车头时距分布特性的假设。为验证这一假设,以广州南沙港快速环形交叉口的进口道车头时距数据为例,利用三参数Burr分布进行统计建模,并运用极大似然法对三参数进行估计,由于参数估计结果只有数值解而没有解析解,故采用牛顿法求解待测参数,最终得出三参数Burr分布对实测车头时距数据的拟合曲线,并利用K-S检验进行了验证。研究结果表明:三参数Burr分布能较好拟合车头时距数据变化特征曲线,能满足一般情况下环形交叉口进口道车头时距分布的统计特征,为今后研究交通流车头时距分布的统计规律提供了一种新的可行性模型。The random process of time headway is similar with the Burr distribution function according to research.Therefore,the hypothesis of using the three parameters Burr distribution to study time headway distribution characteristics was put forward.In order to validate it,this study took the entrance lane headway distribution of the rapid roundabout of Nansha Port,Guangzhou City as an example.The three parameters Burr distribution was used to perform statistical analyses and establish model.Then the unknown parameters for the established three parameters Burr distribution were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation.As the estimated results only show the numerical solution but not the analytic solution,Newton’s method was used to solve the parameters being tested to obtain the appropriate curve to fit the measured time headway in the end.Besides,the hypothesis was validated by the K-S test.The result shows that the three parameters Burr distribution can accurately fit the curve line of the time headway data’s changes,and moreover,it can meet the time headway statistical characteristic of the roundabout entrance lane.In conclusion,the three parameters Burr distribution provides a new feasibility model for the statistics principles of the future traffic flow time headway distribution researches.

关 键 词：车头时距 三参数Burr分布 极大似然法 牛顿法 K-S检验 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]