农作物气象灾害风险识别与评估研究  

Weather-related Diaster Risk Recognizing and Assessment of Crop

作　　者：赵思健[1] 张峭[1] 聂谦 郑茗曦 ZHAO Sijian;ZHANG Qiao;NIE Qiang;ZHENG Mingxi(Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology,MOA,Beijing 100081,China;Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhang Branch,School of Economics and Management,Wuhan 430064,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]华中科技大学武昌分校经济管理学院,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第2期51-57,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41471426)；中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2017-19)；中国财产再保险有限责任公司委托课题“农业灾害易损性分析”

摘　　要：以安徽省来安县水稻和萧县玉米为例,通过构建气象灾害指数和异常优化匹配技术量化气象灾害与产量损失之间关系,进而实现作物气象灾害风险的识别与评估。考虑到作物产量存在年趋势,利用直线滑动平均法(LMA)法进行产量年趋势剔除,获得产量年际波动率数据;根据研究区及作物生长期特征,用三种气象要素(降水、温度和光照)构建研究区长江的五种气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温、冻害、寡照)指数,并利用逐日气象要素值计算气象灾害指数的年极值与年累计值,获得气象灾害指数时序数据;基于气象灾害属于异常天气事件,导致作物产量异常的原理,采用气象灾害指数异常与产量损失异常匹配的方法来识别气象灾害与产量之间的关系。同时,通过调整异常阈值标准来逐步寻找最优的气象灾害指数与产量损失关系模型。借助关系模型,可对来安县水稻和萧县玉米的各种气象灾害风险进行模拟,获得各种气象灾害风险曲线和期望减产率,并据此对各气象灾害风险大小进行排序。农作物气象灾害风险识别与评估技术具有重要的实际应用价值,为农业气象灾害风险的监测及农业天气指数保险产品的开发提供重要的技术支撑。In this article,the relateionship of weather-related diaster indices and crop s yield loss was built through the data optimal matching technology,and then weather-related disaster risk was recognized and assessed,by using rice in Laian county and mazie in Xiao county in Anhui province of China.Considering the annual trend of yield,LMA method with the variable step was used to remove the trendy yield,and as a result the annual yield loss was obtained.According to the characteristics of study region and crop s growth period,the indices corresponding to 5 weather-related disaste including(drought,flood,high temperature,cold demage,and spare sunlight)were constructed using 3 meteorological elements(precipitation,temperature and sunlight).Then,the annual peak value and cumulative value of 5 weather-related disaster indices were calculted with the daily value of meteorological elements.In general,a weather-related disaster is an extreme weather event type.More specifically,it is an anomalous weather event type.As a consequence,crop yields are expected to appear anomalous too when anomalous weather events appear.Therefore,it is investigated what would be the best mathematic relationship between the anomalies of 5 weather-related disaster indices and crop s yield loss.With the relationship,any one of 5 weather-related disaser risks of rice in Laian and maize in Xiao would be simlated,and as a result,its respondeing risk curve would be created and expected yield lose would be caculted.Moreover,5 weather-related disasters would be ranked according to their expected yield losses.the recognizing and assessment to weather-related risk of crop would play an important role in the early warning of agriculture weather-related disasters and the weather-based index insurance for agriculture.

关 键 词：农作物 气象灾害 风险识别 风险评估 气象灾害指数 异常优化匹配 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P421[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]