基于飞行资源分离的航班延误传播研究  

Flight Delay Propagation Based on Flight Resource Distribution

作　　者：吴薇薇[1] 张皓瑜[1] 孟亭婷 WU Weiwei;ZHANG Haoyu;MENG Tingting(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics,Nanjing,210016,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016

出　　处：《南京航空航天大学学报》2018年第5期653-660,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71201081)资助项目;南京航空航天大学重点科研专项(NZ2016109)资助项目

摘　　要：在航班串设计及机组排班过程中,经常涉及飞行资源(飞机、机组)分离的问题。而延误航班的飞行资源分离将导致共享资源的衔接航班发生延误,并传播至后续航班串。本文考虑带有飞行资源分离的航班串,利用基于贝叶斯网络的比例风险回归模型,对资源分离后的航班离港延误进行分析。对比两种不同时刻飞机与机组资源分离方案下,各延误因素对衔接航班离港延误,以及整个后续航班串延误时间的影响,结果表明,不同时刻分离方案会造成不同的延误传播效果。本文为飞机、机组资源分离时刻的选择提供了定量分析方法,结果表明,资源分离时刻的不同对衔接航班的离港延误,以及整个后续航班串延误波及时间的影响都不同。The problem of flight resource(crew and aircraft)distribution may exist in flight scheduling and operating.However,when the distribution occurred in a delayed flight,it may propagate the delay to its downstream flight through the sharing crew or aircraft,and consequently to the whole flight bunches.A flight bunch with flight resource distribution is considered based on Bayesian analysis in this paper,and the survival analysis of flight delay is discussed by the Cox regression model.By comparing different influencing factors and delay time under different distribution time,it can be concluded that the distribution time affects the performance of delay propagation,and the method proposed in the paper provides a quantitative way in distribution time determining.

关 键 词：航空运输 飞行资源分离 生存分析 贝叶斯网络 延误传播 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]