基于云理论的盾构隧道施工风险综合评价模型  

Comprehensive evaluation model of shield tunnel construction risk based on cloud theory

作　　者：黄震[1] 傅鹤林[1] 张加兵[1] 史越[1] 王成洋 HUANG Zhen;FU Helin;ZHANG Jiabing;SHI Yue;WANG Chenyang(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2018年第11期3012-3020,共9页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51538009;51578550);中南大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2017zzts152)

摘　　要：传统的风险评估方法无法将风险评估过程的模糊性和随机性关联在一起,基于此,针对盾构隧道施工风险评估过程的模糊性及随机性特点,提出基于云理论的盾构隧道施工风险综合评估模型。首先,构建反映盾构隧道施工风险的评价指标体系。然后,将专家对各项评价指标的重要性语言值转化为权重云,用于表征各评价指标的重要程度。通过专家组讨论确定指标的权重及语言评价,得到能够反映盾构隧道施工风险状态综合评价模糊性和随机性特点的云模型。最后,运用云理论的计算方法对盾构隧道施工风险等级进行评估,得到风险等级评估结果的云模型。该模型成功运用于狮子洋盾构隧道施工风险评估,验证了其有效性和实用性。The traditional risk assessment method can not associate the fuzziness with the randomness of risk.Therefore,on the basis of cloud theory,the study puts forward a comprehensive risk assessment model for shield tunnel aiming at the fuzziness and randomness of the risk assessment index of shield tunnel construction.Firstly,construct the evaluation index system which can reflect the construction risk of shield tunnel.Then,convert the experts’language value on each evaluation index into the weight of the cloud to characterize the importance of each evaluation index.The weight and linguistic evaluation of the index are discussed by the panel,and the cloud model is obtained which can reflect the fuzzy and random characteristics of the risk state of shield tunnel construction.Finally,use the method of cloud theory to evaluate the risk level of shield tunnel.The model is successfully applied to the construction risk assessment of the Shiziyang shield tunnel which verifies the effectiveness and practicability.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 施工风险 云理论 风险评估 权重云 

分 类 号：U45[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] X951[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]