基于判别分析探析气候变化对国家脆弱性的影响  

Discriminant analysis on the impact of climate change on national vulnerability

作　　者：李丹[1] 朱家明[2] 徐亮 李薇[2] LI Dan;ZHU Jia-ming;XU Liang;LI Wei(School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Anhui Bengbu 233030;School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Anhui Bengbu 233030)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《齐齐哈尔大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第1期85-89,共5页Journal of Qiqihar University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61305070);安徽省教研项目(2016ckjh007)

摘　　要：气候变化作为21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧许多国家的脆弱性。针对气候变化如何影响国家不稳问题,使用判别分析、时间列分析、Holt-Winters无季节指数平滑拟合等方法,建立气候变化下的国家脆弱性评价模型和国家瘫痪的预测模型,并运用MATLAB,SPSS等软件对问题进行求解。通过研究影响因素,对防止国家成为脆弱的国家提供政策建议。As one of the most severe challenges faced by mankind in the 21 st century,climate change has exacerbated the vulnerability of many countries.This paper aims at how climate change affects the problem of national instability,using discriminant analysis,time series analysis,Holt-Winters seasonal exponential smoothing,and other methods to establish a national vulnerability assessment model and a national forecast model under climate change and apply it.MATLAB,SPSS and other software solve the problem.By studying the influencing factors,policy recommendations are made to prevent countries from becoming vulnerable.

关 键 词：国家脆弱性 判别分析 时间序列分析 SPSS MATLAB 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]