驾驶员意图下的航空器冲突规避模型  

Aircraft conflict avoidance considering pilot’s intentions

作　　者：郝斯琪[1] 程绍武[1] 张亚平[1] 刘丽华 廉冠 HAO Siqi;CHENG Shaowu;ZHANG Yaping;LIU Lihua;LIAN Guan(School of Transportation Science and Technology,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;School of Civil and Traffic Engineering,Henan University of Urban Construction,Pingdingshan 467036,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨150090 [2]河南城建学院土木与交通工程学院,河南平顶山467036

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2019年第3期55-60,共6页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51378221);广州市科技计划(201504010008)

摘　　要：为适应新一代空中交通运输系统的变化,提出一种考虑驾驶员意图的航空器冲突规避模型.新模型通过对驾驶员意图进行建模,提出了改进的航空器位置预测模型,在此基础上分别建立航空器与限制空域、航空器对之间冲突概率估算模型,并根据冲突概率进行冲突风险等级进行划分.此外,本研究挖掘并分析了4个影响冲突概率的重要因素,并以此为依据提出了各冲突风险等级相应的冲突规避策略.结果表明:通过增大两航空器飞行航路段距离,增大飞行航路段长度,减小两航空器航班计划时间重合度,减小飞行计划用时可以相对地降低冲突概率.航空器冲突规避新模型的提出改进了自主冲突探测与解脱决策支持系统,保障了空中交通安全.To adapt to the changes in the next generation air transport systems, this research proposed an aircraft collision avoidance method that takes into account pilot' s intentions. An improved aircraft position prediction model was proposed by considering pilot' s intentions. On this basis, conflict probability between aircraft and restricted airspace and that between aircraft pairs were modelled and estimated respectively, and the conflict risks were divided to three levels according to the conflict probability value. Additionally, four important factors that affect the conflict probability were analysed, and the corresponding conflict avoidance strategies for each conflict risk level was proposed. Results show that the conflict probability can be reduced by increasing the distance between two flights route segments or the length of each flight route segment, or by declining the overlapping time of flight plans between two flights or the time duration of each flight plan. The proposed aircraft conflict avoidance method provides a theoretical basis for the improvement of the autonomous decision support system for conflict detection and resolution, which is of great significance for ensuring air traffic safety.

关 键 词：航空运输 冲突概率 驾驶员意图 时间地理 空中交通安全 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]