住宅价格周期性泡沫测度研究——基于马尔科夫转换模型的分析  

Study on measurement of periodic bubble in housing prices——Analysis Based on Markov-Switching Model

作　　者：施昱年[1] 李巍 丰雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院 [2]远洋地产

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第7期55-58,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(10XNJ006)的研究成果

摘　　要：本文引入马尔科夫转换机制的ADF检验,辅以房价收入比检验,以北京市为例,对住宅价格、收入和贷款利率的周期波动关系进行分析,测算住宅价格泡沫的类型及发生时点。研究结果表明:(1)北京市住宅价格存在泡沫,且是周期性的,在某些时期理性泡沫规模较大,平均月度房价收入比高达26倍;在某些时期理性泡沫规模较小,平均月度房价收入比为24倍。(2)住宅价格理性泡沫规模较大的时期,利率仅小幅波动,信贷扩张对价格存在一定的支撑性。本文研究认为,收入与利率对周期性理性泡沫存在一定的支撑。Methods of Markov-switching ADF unit root test and price to income ratio(PIR) are adopted, taking Beijing as a case, to analyze periodical expansion and collapse of the relationship between housing prices, income and mortgage rate.The types and timing of housing prices bubbles are measured. The results indicate that:(1) Periodically collapsing bubbles exist in Beijing housing prices. In some periods, the rational bubbles was large, with the average monthly PIR as high as26 times;In some periods the rational bubbles was smaller, with an average monthly PIR of 24.(2) In the period of large rational bubbles, the mortgage rate only fluctuates slightly, and the credit expansion has certain support to the price.This paper argues that income and mortgage rate support Periodic rational bubbles.

关 键 词：住宅价格 理性泡沫 周期性泡沫 房价收入比 马尔科夫转换模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]