基于前景理论的网络消费者多属性行为决策模型  

Multiple attribute behavioral decision-making model of internet consumers based on prospect theory

作　　者：左文明[1] 陈少杰 王旭[1] 陈华琼[1] ZUO Wen-ming;CHEN Shao-jie;WANG Xu;CHEN Hua-qiong(School of Economics & Commerce,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2019年第3期125-135,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL190)

摘　　要：在电子商务环境下消费者由于受到网络参照群体的影响,表现出行为决策的“有限理性”或“非理性”。以B2C电子商务为研究对象,结合前景理论与模糊多属性决策,分析网络消费者复杂的行为决策过程及其影响因素。依据电子商务服务子流程分别建立改进的价值函数、权重函数和前景函数,同时定义多属性决策问题,通过构建针对网络口碑的服务流程分类器和挖掘网络口碑数据以量化行为决策模型,并以京东、1号店和当当为例实现了算例分析。研究结果表明:(1)与基于期望效用理论构建的决策行为模型相比较,基于前景理论的网络消费者行为决策模型更能反映现实情况;(2)算例结果表明,京东的综合前景得分最高,1号店次之,当当最低。网络口碑的聚类分析得到了13个评价指标,京东在其中7个指标的前景值最优,1号店有4个前景值最优。京东虽然总体得分最高,但其售后服务阶段的得分却最低,导致总得分差距被缩小。而1号店由于出色的服务补救,最终得分排名第二。实验结果充分表明良好的服务补救策略有助于提升服务质量。Modeling the decision-making process of online consumers in a proper way can provide strategic suggestions on operation management and service marketing for electronic commerce firms. In recent years, many researches have tried to model the consumers’ decision-making process from different perspectives, like considering consumers' behavior patterns, integrating consumption theories, and utilizing different methods or tools. Most of these researches build models based on the Expected Utility Theory which depends on the "Rational People" hypothesis. However, online consumers often make some "bounded rational" or "irrational" decisions in an electronic commerce environment, due to peers’ influence. Therefore, Prospect Theory, which is dependent on the "Irrational People" hypothesis, is selected as the theoretical basis in this paper. We replace the traditional expected utility function with Prospect Theory’s value function to build a reasonable behavioral decision-making model. Moreover, an improvement in value function is acquired by the introduction of intuitionistic triangular fuzzy number. We provide our approach in detail as follows. First, we construct the behavioral decision-making model based on Prospect Theory. Then the intuitionistic fuzzy number is introduced to express fuzzy decision-making information, which brings about improved value function, improved weight function as well as improved prospect function. We also build a more appropriate behavioral decision-making model. Therefore, we have determined the basic form of the model. Secondly, the whole service process of B2C electronic commerce is divided into six sub-processes by using service blueprinting. Based on these six sub-processes, the multiple attribute decision-making problem is defined through the determination of the multiple attribute structure and the set of alternatives which includes three dominant B2C platforms in China, e.g. Jingdong (jd.com), Yihaodian (yhd.com) and Dangdang (dangdang.com). Hence, the behavioral decision-making

关 键 词：行为决策模型 前景理论 B2C电子商务 网络口碑 直觉模糊数 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]