考虑路径走行时间边界的行程时间可靠性研究  

Study on Travel Time Reliability Considering Route Travel Time Boundary

作　　者：赵磊 关宏志[1] 张新洁 赵鹏飞 王鹏飞[1,2] ZHAO Lei;GUAN Hongzhi;ZHANG Xinjie;ZHAO Pengfei;WANG Pengfei(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Urban Construction,Hebei Normal University of Science & Technology,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [2]河北科技师范学院城市建设学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第6期127-135,共9页Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51338008,51378036);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2018407051);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(QN2018263)~~

摘　　要：以路径的自由流时间为路径走行时间的下边界,提出了截断正态分布条件下的出行时间预算模型,并将其与一般正态分布条件下的出行时间预算模型进行对比.在多用户随机网络条件下,假定出行者的期望准时到达概率是异质的,并建立了基于可靠性的多类用户随机用户均衡模型.研究结果表明,在截断正态分布条件下,出行者的预算时间更大,且其风险厌恶水平是基于情景自适应的.同时,对准时到达要求较高的出行者倾向于选择可靠性较大的路径,对准时到达要求不高的出行者倾向于选择平均走行时间较小的路径.Through assuming the route-free flow travel time as the lower bound of route travel time,the travel time budget model with truncated normal distribution was proposed.And the model was compared with the travel time budget model with general normal distribution.In the multi-class user stochastic network,travelers were assumed to be heterogeneous with respect to their desired on-time arrival probabilities.Then the reliability-based multi-class stochastic user equilibrium model was developed,its equivalent variational inequality formulation was given.The results show that the budget time of travelers under truncated normal distribution is larger than that under general normal distribution.In this case, the risk aversion levels of travelers are context-based adaptive.In addition,the results also demonstrate that the punctual travelers tend to choose the routes with the better reliability.Nevertheless,the risky travelers prefer to choose the routes with the less average travel time.

关 键 词：出行时间预算 可靠性 自适应风险厌恶水平 异质用户 随机用户均衡 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]