新时代我国综合气象防灾减灾的综述与展望  

Summary and Prospect of Comprehensive Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction in China in the New Era

作　　者：孔锋 薛澜[1] 乔枫雪[4,5] 王瑞[4,5] KONG Feng;XUE Lan;QIAO Fengxue;WANG Rui(Emergency Management Base, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084;China Meteorological Administration Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Central Asia Atmospheric Sciences Center, Urumqi 830002,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241;School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院应急管理基地,北京100084 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [3]中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [5]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期67-72,共6页Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41801064; 71790611);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201843和CCSF201844);中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804)

摘　　要：全球变化背景下,经济社会发展对综合气象防灾减灾提出了新的需求.聚焦我国综合气象灾害监测预报预警体系建设、气象灾害预警信息发布体制机制和综合气象灾害风险防范体系三大方向,本文系统分析了近年来我国综合气象防灾减灾工作的主要成就.在综合气象灾害监测预报预警体系建设上,全面回顾了气象灾害监测网络、国家突发事件预警平台建设、全球气象灾害监测能力建设、环境气象预报预警能力和气象防灾减灾救灾保障能力建设的主要进展.在气象灾害预警信息发布体制机制上,从重大事件和活动中的气象灾害服务能力、气象灾害决策服务智能化水平、气象灾害风险预警业务化和标准化、蓝天保卫战中的先导联动作用和机制和基层气象防灾减灾体系五个方面全面分析主要成绩.在气象灾害风险防范体系上,从新时代我国气象灾害风险防范体系顶层设计、农村气象防灾减灾建设、气象灾害风险治理能力和气象防灾减灾救灾责任体系4个方面介绍我国综合气象灾害风险防范体系的主要成就.在此基础上,从资源、业务、研究和理念上对我国未来气象综合防灾减灾进行了相应的展望和讨论.Under the background of global change, economic and social development has put forward new demands for comprehensive meteorological disaster prevention and reduction. Focusing on the construction of integrated meteorological disaster monitoring and forecasting early warning system, the mechanism of early warning information release and the risk prevention system of integrated meteorological disaster, this study systematically analyzes the main achievements of integrated meteorological disaster prevention and reduction in recent years. On the construction of comprehensive meteorological disaster monitoring and forecasting and early warning system, the main progress of meteorological disaster monitoring network, national emergency early warning platform, global meteorological disaster monitoring capacity, environmental meteorological forecasting and early warning capacity and meteorological disaster prevention and reduction support capacity are reviewed. On the system and mechanism of early warning information release of meteorological disasters, it is comprehensive and analyze the main achievements from five aspects:service ability of meteorological disasters in major events and activities, intelligent level of decision-making service of meteorological disasters, operational and standardized early warning of meteorological disasters, leading role and mechanism in the blue sky defense war, and system of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction at the grass-roots level. In terms of meteorological disaster risk prevention system, this study introduces the main achievements of China′s comprehensive meteorological disaster risk prevention system from four aspects: the top-level design of meteorological disaster risk prevention system in the new era, the construction of rural meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation, the ability of meteorological disaster risk management and the responsibility system of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation and relief. On this basis, the future of integrat

关 键 词：气象灾害 风险治理 气候变化 灾害防御能力 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]