基于模糊-证据理论的盾构隧道施工风险综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of shield tunnel construction risk based on fuzzy-evidence theory

作　　者：黄震[1] 傅鹤林[1] 张加兵[1] 袁维[1,2] 洪开荣 HUANG Zhen;FU Helin;ZHANG Jiabing;YUAN Wei;HONG Kairong(School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075,China;Hydro China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation,Changsha 410014,China;China Railway Tunnel Group Co., Ltd., Luoyang 471009, China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075 [2]中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院,湖南长沙410014 [3]中铁隧道集团有限公司,河南洛阳471009

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2019年第8期694-702,共9页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:51538009,51578550);中南大学研究生自主探索创新项目(编号:2017zzts152)

摘　　要：为解决盾构隧道风险评价不确定性推理与风险决策的问题,提出了基于模糊-证据理论的盾构隧道施工风险综合评价方法.首先,通过风险识别构造盾构隧道施工风险评价指标体系;然后,基于模糊-证据理论建立盾构隧道施工风险综合评价模型,采用梯形模糊数确定指标权重,在考虑风险损失及风险概率基础上,将专家的指标评语转化为Mass函数,并逐步合成指标Mass函数;最后,提出了用区间数贴近度法进行风险决策.该方法成功运用于狮子洋盾构隧道的进出洞施工风险评价,验证了其有效性和实用性.In order to solve the problem of uncertainty reasoning and risk decision of shield tunnel, a comprehensive evaluation method of shield tunnel construction risk based on fuzzy evidence theory is put forward.Firstly, the risk assessment index system of shield tunnel construction is constructed by risk identification;and then, based on the fuzzy evidence theory a shield tunnel construction risk evaluation model is established;applying the trapezoidal fuzzy number to determine the index weight, considering the risk loss and risk probability, the experts’ comment for the index is turned into the mass function and gradually compounded into synthesis index mass function. Finally, the risk decision through the interval number similarity method is put forward. This method is successfully applied to the risk evaluation of Shiziyang shield tunnel entry and exit construction, so as to verify the validity and practicability of the method.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 施工风险 模糊-证据理论 风险评价 信度区间 

分 类 号：U25[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]