基于BP-RBF神经网络的组合模型预测港口物流需求研究  

A Model Based on the Combination of BP and RBF Neural Network for Port Logistic Demand Forecasting

作　　者：蔡婉贞 黄翰[2] CAI Wanzhen;HUANG Han(Department of Economic Management, Shantou Polytechnic, Shantou 515078 China;School of Software Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006 China)

机构地区：[1]汕头职业技术学院经济管理系,广东汕头515078 [2]华南理工大学软件学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2019年第5期84-90,共7页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61370102)

摘　　要：为了准确、高效地预测港口物流需求量,提出一种基于BP-RBF神经网络的组合预测模型.考虑到物流需求的非线性变化特点,在建模过程中首先采用BP与RBF两种神经网络方法分别建立单项预测子模型,然后依据各子模型预测结果赋予不同权重进一步构建加权组合预测模型.再以汕头港为例,通过MATLAB软件对港口物流需求量进行仿真预测.结果表明,组合预测模型较单一预测模型具有更高的预测精度,能有效减少出现较大误差的概率,使预测结果更接近于实际情况,可为港口今后物流发展规划提供参考.In order to get the excellent accuracy for port logistic demand forecasting, a combination model based on the BP and RBF neural network was utilized to forecast the logistic demand of Shantou port in this paper. According to the nonlinear change of logistic demand, the BP neural network and RBF neural network were used to establish the single forecasting sub-model separately. And then, the sub-models were combined through the magnitude of the forecasting error to forecast the logistic demand. The simulation was performed by using MATLAB software. Experiment results showed that the combination model could achieve considerably better predictive performances than the single model of BP or RBF neural network. It could reduce the mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error in the logistic demand of Shantou port. These results indicated that forecast combination could improve the precision of the single neural network model for port logistic demand forecasting, and could help the decision maker in relevant port sector make proper decisions.

关 键 词：BP神经网络 RBF神经网络 组合模型 预测 港口物流需求 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] F552.7[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]