基于维纳过程和蒙特卡洛法的多元性能退化产品可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Multivariate Performance Degradation Products Based on Wiener Process and Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：潘广泽 张铮[1,2] 罗琴 李小兵 王远航[1] PAN Guang-ze;ZHANG Zheng;LUO Qin;LI Xiao-bing;WANG Yuan-hang(The Fifth Electronics Research Institute of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Guangzhou,510610;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Electronic Information Products Reliability Technology, Guangzhou,510610;National Joint Engineering Research Center of Reliability Test and Analysis for Electronic Information Products, Guangzhou 510610)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广州510610 [2]广东省电子信息产品可靠性技术重点实验室,广州510610 [3]电子信息产品可靠性分析与测试技术国家地方联合工程中心,广州510610

出　　处：《环境技术》2019年第A02期107-111,共5页Environmental Technology

基　　金：广东省省级科技计划项目(2017B090903006);广州市科技计划项目(201804010358);国家智能制造综合标准化与新模式应用项目“基于数字仿真的可靠性测试方法标准研究及试验验证”;国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB1300900).

摘　　要：如何利用多元性能退化数据对高可靠及长寿命的产品进行可靠性评估是目前需要迫切解决的问题。本文提出基于维纳过程和蒙特卡洛法的多元性能退化产品可靠性评估方法,采用维纳过程对产品的性能退化数据进行建模,评估产品性能退化特征量的参数超差时间。考虑到产品具有多个性能退化特征量,采用蒙特卡洛方法对产品多个性能退化特征量进行综合评估,获得多元性能退化产品的寿命分布模型,从而实现产品的可靠性评估。以某型石英挠性加速度计为例开展应用,评估结果和试验结果误差较小,验证了该方法的准确性。How to use multi-performance degradation data to evaluate the reliability of highreliability and long-life products is an urgent problem to be solved.The reliability evaluation method for multivariate performance degradation products based on Wiener process and Monte Carlo method is proposed.The Wiener process is used to model the performance degradation data of the product to evaluate the failure time of the product performance degradation parameter. Considering that the product has multiple performance degradation parameters, the Monte Carlo method is used to comprehensively evaluate the performance degradation parameters, and the lifetime distribution model of the product is obtained, thereby realizing the reliability evaluation of the product. Taking a certain type of quartz flexible accelerometer as an example, the error between the evaluation result and the test result is small, and the accuracy of the method is verified.

关 键 词：维纳过程 蒙特卡洛法 多元性能退化 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TE22[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]