青海省研究生教育规模的影响因素及预测  

Research on the Influencing Factors and Prediction of Postgraduate Education Scale in Qinghai Province

作　　者：李翌 蒋开君[1] LI Yi;JIANG Kaijun(Faculty of Education,Qinghai Normal University,Qinghai 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学教育学院

出　　处：《重庆高教研究》2019年第6期58-69,共12页Chongqing Higher Education Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学一般课题“青海民族地区教师继续教育研究”(BMA130110)

摘　　要：2005—2017年青海省研究生教育规模逐渐扩大,但与全国平均水平相比仍有较大差距。为找到差距存在的原因并在2020—2030年缩小此差距,对青海省2005—2017年教育统计的相关数据进行分析,探寻青海省人均GDP、本科毕业生数、专任教师(副高级及以上)数和高校教育经费投入对研究生教育规模扩大的影响,在排除无关变量后,建立多元线性回归模型,依据回归关系预测了青海省2020—2030年研究生教育规模。结果表明,青海省研究生教育规模主要受专任教师(副高级及以上)数和高校教育经费投入的影响;专任教师(副高级及以上)数和高校教育经费投入每增加1个单位,青海省研究生招生数分别增加0.421人和29.541人。此外,基于多元线性回归模型预测出青海省2030年研究生招生数将达到9277人,约为2017年研究生招生数的5倍。因此,青海省需要重点加强高校师资队伍建设,加大高校教育经费投入,提前配备好相应的教育设施,使研究生教育规模有计划地良性扩张。From 2005 to 2017,the scale of postgraduate education in Qinghai province has gradually expanded,but there is still a large gap compared with the national average.In order to find out the reasons for the gap and narrow the gap between 2020 and 2030,the relevant data of education statistics in Qinghai province from 2005 to 2017 were analyzed to discover the impact of per capita GDP,the number of undergraduate graduates,the number of full-time teachers(deputy senior and above)and the amount of investment in higher education on the scale development of postgraduate education in Qinghai province.After excluding the irrelevant variables,a multiple linear regression model was established to predict the scale of graduate education in Qinghai province from 2020 to 2030 according to the regression relationship.The results show that the scale of postgraduate education in Qinghai province is greatly influenced by the number of full-time teachers(deputy senior and above)and the investment of higher education funds;the number of full-time teachers(deputy senior and above)and the investment of higher education funds increased by 1 unit respectively,and the enrollment of Postgraduates in Qinghai province increased by 0.421 and 29.541 persons;in addition,it is predicted that the number of postgraduate enrollment in Qinghai province will reach 9277 in 2030 based on the multivariate linear regression model,which is about five times the number of postgraduate enrollment in 2017.Therefore,Qinghai province needs to focus on strengthening the construction of faculty,increasing the investment of higher education funds,and expanding enrollment in a planned way,equipping appropriate educational facilities in advance,so as to obtain sustainable development of the scale of postgraduate education.

关 键 词：青海省 西部高等教育 研究生教育 研究生教育规模 

分 类 号：G643.0[文化科学—高等教育学]