ARIMA模型在电商平台新疆灰枣订单预测中的应用研究  

Application of ARIMA Model in Prediction of Xinjiang Grey Jujube Orders on Commercial Platform

作　　者：王斌 杨抒[2] 贾清 赵毅 王业 WANG Bing;YANG Shu;JIA Qing;ZHAO Yi;WANG Ye(XinJiang Argriculture University Modern Educational Technology Center,Urumqi,China,830052;XinJiang Argriculture University College of Computer and Information,Urumqi,China,830052)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学现代教育技术中心,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学计算机与信息工程学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《福建电脑》2019年第11期5-8,共4页Journal of Fujian Computer

基　　金：自治区科技厅重点研发项目新疆红枣产业提质增效关键技术研发与应用（No.2017B01002-4）资助

摘　　要：本文针对某电商平台2019年1月至2019年5月新疆灰枣产品订单量的时序数据,使用ARIMA时间序列模型对灰枣原枣产品的订单量进行预测。建立ARIMA预测模型经数据收集、数据预处理、模型识别与定阶、参数估计和选优、模型适应性检验、误差分析几个阶段后确定模型参数,最后进行实际应用。实验表明,ARIMA(1,1,1)模型可以比较好地描述灰枣订单变化趋势,可为新疆红枣种植户和相关企业提供有效的科学决策支撑。In this paper, we use ARIMA time series model to forecast the order quantity of raw jujube products from January 2019 to May 2019 based on the time series data of the order quantity of a certain electronic commerce platform merchant. The ARIMA prediction model can be divided into data collection, data preprocessing, model identification and order determination, parameter estimation and optimization, model adaptability test and error analysis, and then the model parameters are determined. Finally, the model parameters are applied in practice. Experiments show that ARIMA(1, 1, 1) model can describe the trend of grey jujube orders better, and can provide effective scientific decision support for jujube growers and related enterprises in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 灰枣数据 订单预测 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]