基于GM(1,1)对长三角环境污染影响因素的计量分析  

Measurement analysis of environmental pollution influence factors in Yangtze River Delta based on GM(1,1)

作　　者：朱家明[1] 许士林 李春忠[1] ZHU Jiaming;XU Shilin;LI Chunzhong(Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《安徽大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期90-97,共8页Journal of Anhui University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61703001,61305070);安徽财经大学校级大学生科研创新基金资助项目(XSKY1937ZD);安徽省教育厅教研项目(2018jyxm1305)。

摘　　要：针对长三角环境污染影响因素,分别从大气、水、声和固体废弃物等污染状况的4个维度,构建长三角地区环境污染状况评价体系.然后,利用灰色关联分析法对各影响因素进行分析,得出对长三角地区环境污染影响最主要的是危险废物产生量.其次,利用GM(1,1)模型对安徽、江苏、浙江和上海的危险废物产生量进行预测,得出长三角地区的危险废物产生量在未来3年中近似呈指数增长.最后,对长三角地区的环境治理情况进行了分析并提出相应建议.According to the factors affecting environmental pollution in the Yangtze River Delta,an evaluation system for environmental pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region was constructed from four dimensions of pollution such as atmosphere,water,sound and solid waste.Then,the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the various influence factors,and it was concluded that the most important effect on environmental pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region was the amount of hazardous waste.Secondly,the GM(1,1)model was used to predict hazardous waste generation in Anhui,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai,resulting in an approximate exponential increase in hazardous waste generation in the Yangtze River Delta over the next three years.Finally,the environmental governance in the Yangtze River Delta region was analyzed and corresponding recommendations are put forward.

关 键 词：长三角 环境污染 灰色关联分析法 GM(1 1) 影响因素 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] X830.2[理学—数学]