2018/19年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2019/20年榨季展望  

Domestic Sugar Consumption Situation Analysis in 2018/19 Crushing Seasonand Its Prospect in 2019/20 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 王新超[1] 周靖昀 LIU Xiao-xue;WANG Xin-chao;ZHOU Jing-yun(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2020年第1期28-35,共8页Sugarcane and Canesugar

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系“主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究”。

摘　　要：2018/19年榨季我国食糖期货、现货价格在产不足需的基本面驱动下呈趋势性走高态势,储备糖政策、走私糖入境等不确定因素对产业影响减弱,2018/19年榨季食糖消费更多受国内经济环境、食品工业发展、淀粉糖替代影响,整体消费量稳中有降。本文结合人口变化、人均可支配收入、含糖食品产量、食糖产业供需数据等分析了2018/19年榨季我国食糖消费形势,并对2019/20年榨季食糖消费情况进行展望。In 2018/19 crushing season,China's sugar futures and spot prices tended to go upward due to insufficient supply of sugar.Uncertain factors such as the sugar reserve policy and smuggled sugar entry had weakened their impact on the industry.The consumption of sugar in 2018/19 crushing season was more affected by the domestic economic environment,the development of food industry,and the substitution of starch sugar,and the overall consumption was stable with a slight decline.Based on the data of population change,per capita disposable income,sugar food output,and supply and demand situation of sugar industry,this paper analyzed China's sugar consumption situation in 2018/19 crushing season,and forecasted the situation of sugar consumption in 2019/20 crushing season.

关 键 词：食糖消费 食品工业 月度平衡关系 甜味剂替代 消费估计 

分 类 号：TS245[轻工技术与工程—制糖工程]