基于组合赋权二维云模型的箱涵下穿既有铁路施工风险评价  

Risk assessment of box culverts construction under existing railway based on combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model

作　　者：王景春 董妍妍 李钦 成跃利 WANG Jingchun;DONG Yanyan;LI Qin;CHENG Yueli(College of Civil Engineering,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;Beijing Tiejian Engineering Supervision Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100860,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学土木工程学院,河北石家庄050043 [2]北京铁建工程监理有限公司,北京100860

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2020年第2期516-523,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51608336);北京铁建工程监理有限公司专项研究课题(2018001)

摘　　要：箱涵下穿既有运营铁路施工过程中的各个因素具有不确定性,因此,本文运用组合赋权二维云模型的评价方法对其进行风险评价。从既有铁路运营风险、工作坑开挖风险、箱涵顶进风险和设备风险4个方面展开研究,确定风险评价指标体系。运用层次分析法与熵权法组合赋权确定权重,将后果与概率作为二维云的2组基础变量,最后通过输出云图以及相近度计算确定风险等级。将上述方法应用于天津北海路下穿进港铁路二线地道工程,得出施工过程的风险等级为Ⅱ级,风险可接受,与该工程实际情况一致,表明建立的风险评价方法合理,可应用于工程实践研究。The risk factors in the box culvert construction under the existing railway are uncertain. Therefore, this paper used the method of the combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model to evaluate the risk. The risk assessment index system was established from four aspects of existing railway operation risk, working pit excavation risk, box culvert jacking risk and equipment risk. The analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method were used to determine weights. The consequences and probabilities were taken as two sets of basic variables of the two-dimensional cloud. Finally, the risk level was determined by the output cloud map and the risk cloud closeness calculation. The above method was used to evaluate the risk of Tianjin-Beihai Road under-crossing the second-line tunnel project of the inbound railway, and the risk level of the construction process is grade II. The risk is acceptable and consistent with the actual situation of the project, indicating that the risk assessment method established in this paper is reasonable and can be used in engineering practice.

关 键 词：既有铁路 箱涵施工 组合赋权 二维云模型 风险评价 

分 类 号：U215.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]