基于Bayes状态空间剩余产量模型JABBA的南极48区犬牙鱼资源评估  

作　　者：符武月 程前 刘崇焕 魏艺鸣 刘汉超 李九奇 

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学渔业资源,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连市现代海洋牧场研究院,辽宁大连116023 [3]不详

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2020年第5期1-4,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

摘　　要：南极犬牙鱼资源丰富、经济价值高,是南极海域渔业资源的重要组成部分,掌握南极犬牙鱼资源动态对确保其资源可持续利用具有重要意义。本文利用南极海域48区的犬牙鱼历年渔业统计资料,采用基于Bayes状态空间剩余产量模型JABBA对南极48区犬牙鱼资源动态进行了评估,评估结果显示,南极48区犬牙鱼的环境容纳量K=92521t、内禀增长率r=0.14、2018年资源生物量为其环境容纳量K的75.2%、支持MSY的最佳资源量Bmsy=37007t、最大持续产量MSY=4247t、2018年资源量与最佳资源量Bmsy之比B2018/Bmsy为1.88、2018年实际捕捞死亡系数与获得MSY所需的捕捞死亡系数Fmsy之比F/Fmsy=0.33。从捕捞死亡系数和资源生物量水平两个指标对48区的南极犬牙鱼资源利用情况进行评价,评价结果认为该资源利用不存在捕捞过度情况。Antarctic toothfish is rich in resources and of high economic value.It is an important part of the Antarctic sea fish stocks.Understanding and mastering the dynamics of Antarctic toothfish stocks is of great significance to ensure the sustainable utilization of these stocks.In this paper,based on the fishery statistics of toothfish in area 48 of Antarctic sea area over the years,non-equilibrium surplus production model based on Bayes state space was adopted to evaluate the dynamics of the stocks of toothfish in this area.The evaluation results showed that,the environmental capacity K=92521t;the intrinsic growth rate r=0.14;the ratio B2018/K=75.2%;Bmsy=37007t;MSY=4007t;the ratio B2018/Bmsy=1.88;the ratio F/Fmsy=0.33.The utilization of Antarctic toothfish stocks in area 48 was evaluated from the fishing mortality and the biomass,the results showed that overfishing is not happened.

关 键 词：南极犬牙鱼 BAYES 状态空间模型 非平衡剩余产量模型 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学] S931.1[理学—基础数学]