黑龙江省生态足迹分析及ARIMA模型预测  

Ecological Footprint Analysis and ARIMA Model Prediction in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：梁雪石[1] 郑福云[1] 郭文栋[1] 魏延军[1] 聂晶[1] 刘晓佳[1] 刘丹萍[1] 乔磊[1] 高玉慧[1] LIANG Xue-shi(Institute of Natural Resources and Ecology,HAS.National and Provincial Joint Engineering Laboratory of Wetlands and Ecological Conservation,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省科学院自然与生态研究所湿地与生态保育国家地方联合工程实验室,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2020年第2期14-19,共6页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：黑龙江省院所基本应用技术研究专项:“黑龙江省生态安全演变与预警研究”。

摘　　要：为了解黑龙江省生态可持续发展问题,对黑龙江省生态足迹进行分析,并寻求动态预测结果。运用生态足迹模型对黑龙江省2000~2015年的人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行测算,在此基础上选用ARIMA模型,并结合使用Eviews软件对未来10年人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测。研究结果表明2000~2015年间黑龙江省人均生态足迹一直不断增加,人均生态承载力呈现波动缓慢上升的趋势,生态系统处于不安全状态;2016~2025年黑龙江省人均生态足迹仍然持续增大,虽然人均生态承载力也缓慢上升,但人均生态赤字仍然越来越大,黑龙江省生态安全面临巨大挑战。In order to understand the problem of ecological sustainable development in Heilongjiang Province,the ecological footprint of Heilongjiang Province was analyzed,and the dynamic prediction results were sought.The ecological footprint model was used to calculate the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2015.On this basis,ARIMA model was used to predict the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity in the next 10 years with Eviews software.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Heilongjiang Province increased continuously from 2000 to 2015,the per capita ecological carrying capacity showed a slow upward trend,and the ecosystem was in an unsafe state;the per capita ecological footprint continued to increase from 2016 to 2025,the per capita ecological carrying capacity slowly increased,and the per capita ecological deficit was growing,so the ecological security of Heilongjiang Province was facing great challenges.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 ARIMA模型 黑龙江 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]