矿工不安全行为涌现性建模研究  

Research on emergency modeling of unsafe behavior of coal miners

作　　者：佟瑞鹏[1] 赵辉[1] 张娜[1] 王伟[1] 安宇[1] Tong Ruipeng;Zhao Hui;Zhang Na;Wang Wei;An Yu(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《矿业科学学报》2020年第3期311-319,共9页Journal of Mining Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51674268);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51534008)。

摘　　要：为研究矿工不安全行为影响因素交互关系,以2009-2018年发生的144起煤矿重大安全事故作为样本,基于涌现性理论提取影响矿工不安全行为的矿工个体、管理者、组织与环境方面的因素,利用集成DEMATEL/ISM法筛选出关键因素,构建基于有约束产生过程模型(CGP)的矿工不安全行为涌现模型;再利用Netlogo平台模拟关键因素对矿工不安全行为的影响程度与趋势,并与基准模式进行对比分析。结果表明:矿工不安全行为是多因素影响下的一种涌现现象,矿工个人的受教育程度、管理者的安全理念、组织的安全承诺水平、工作环境的安全状况等因素都会影响矿工不安全行为的涌现程度。在煤矿安全管理过程中,可依此制定预防和控制矿工不安全行为的针对性措施。In order to explore the interaction relations of factors of miners’ unsafe behaviors;emergent property theory is employed to extract the individual,managing,organizational and environmental factors that influence miners’ unsafe behaviors based on 144 serious coal mine safety accident reports from 2009 to 2018.The DEMATEL/ISM methods are used to screen out key factors.On this basis,a miners’ unsafe behaviors emergency model based on CGP was established.Then,using Netlogo simulation platform,the impact of these factors on the emergence degree and trend of the unsafe behavior of coal miners were dynamically simulated,and the simulation results under standard mode and analysis mode were compared and analyzed.The results show that the unsafe behaviors of coal miners is a emergent phenomenon under the influence of many factors.The emergence of unsafe behaviors of coal miners are affected by their personal educational level,the safety values of managers,the level of organizational safety commitment and safety status of workplace.In coal mine safety management,targeted measures based on these findings can be taken to pre-control and manage unsafe behaviors of miners.

关 键 词：煤矿工人 不安全行为 涌现性 集成DEMATEL/ISM方法 CGP建模 Netlogo仿真 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]