不确定性条件下的波罗湖湿地补水工程净碳汇优化模型研究  

An optimization model of an aquatic carbon sink:supplementary project at the Baltic lake based on uncertain conditions

作　　者：赵雷 孙世军[1] 冯江[1] 崔朋[1] Zhao Lei;Sun Shijun;Feng Jiang;Cui Peng(School of Environment,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学环境学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《可再生能源》2020年第5期569-577,共9页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：吉林省西部地区雨洪资源综合利用河湖联通供水工程水生生物专题评价项目(2015220101001023)。

摘　　要：根据波罗湖保护区的现状和特点,综合考虑了社会经济效益和生态环境效益等相关因素以及补水过程中不确定因素的影响,采用区间两阶段随机规划方法,以芦苇湿地和沼泽湿地的净碳汇量最大化为目标,建立了基于不确定性条件下的波罗湖湿地补水工程净碳汇优化模型,以期获得净碳汇量最大目标下的波罗湖湿地生态补水优化方案。分析结果表明,以满足社会经济效益和生态环境效益等因素为前提,在枯、平两种情景下,湿地平均每年可吸收固定CO2量的上限值均有所增加,分别为[15239.35,35788.16]t,[19024.30,37232.18]t,比工程推荐方案分别提高了73.73%和80.74%;丰水年情景下可吸收固定CO2量为[20916.77,37893.11]t,其上、下限分别提高了1.54%和83.95%。该优化方案充分发挥了湿地的最大生产潜力,为最大限度地利用湿地资源及减缓温室效应提供技术支持。Assessment of wetland carbon storage and carbon sink capacity is a critical issue in the development of sustainable civilization in China,and it is also a long-term concern in theoretical circles.Based on the present situation and characteristics of the Baltic Lake and by comprehensively considering the relevant factors,such as the social,economic,ecological and environmental benefits as well as the influence of uncertainties in the process of water replenishment,this study adopted the two-stage interval programming method to maximize the carbon sinks of Phragmites australis wetland and marsh wetland.This study also established a project to investigate carbon replenishment of the Baltic Lake based on uncertainties.The optimization model was used to obtain the optimal scheme of ecological water replenishment for the Baltic Lake with the maximum carbon sink capacity.The results showed that,on the premise of providing social,economic,ecological and environmental benefits,the upper limit values of the average annual absorbable fixed carbon dioxide in wetlands under dry and flat scenarios were[15239.35,35788.16]t,[19024.30,37232.18]t,which were 73.73%and 80.74%higher than the recommended values,respectively.The quantity of wetland was[20916.77,37893.11]t,and the upper and lower limits were elevated by 1.54%and 83.95%,respectively.The maximum production potential of wetlands was fully utilized,which provided technical support for maximizing the utilization of wetland resources and mitigating the greenhouse effect.

关 键 词：波罗湖保护区 湿地净碳汇量 不确定性优化 生态系统服务价值 温室效应 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]