面向智能电网的电力通信网络承载力预测方法  

A method for predicting the bearing capacity of power communication network for intelligent grid

作　　者：王龙 Wang Long(Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518001,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《现代科学仪器》2019年第6期107-111,共5页Modern Scientific Instruments

摘　　要：电力通信网络传输过程中信道负载不均衡,导致电力通信网络承载力预测误差较高,且特征聚类效果差,因此提出基于波特间隔信道均衡控制的智能电网电力通信网络承载力预测方法。构建智能电网的通信传输信道模型,采用自适应波特间隔均衡控制方法进行信道负载均衡设计。在此基础上建立电力通信网络承载力的统计序列模型,利用高阶统计方法提取电力通信网络承载力特征,结合模糊聚类分析方法对特征信息进行优化聚类。采用定量递归分析方法均衡调节电力通信网络承载力输出,通过自适应的波特间隔均衡方法实现电力通信网络承载力的预测。仿真结果表明,该方法的预测结果输出负载均衡,特征信息聚类效果好,预测误差较小,在智能电网设计中具有应用价值。In the transmission process of power communication network,the load of channel is unbalanced,which leads to high prediction error of power communication network carrying capacity and poor performance of feature clustering.A communication channel model of smart grid is constructed and the adaptive baud interval balance control method is used to design the channel load balance.On this basis,a statistical sequence model of the carrying capacity of power communication network was established,and the characteristics of the carrying capacity of power communication network were extracted by the high-order statistical method,and the feature information was optimized by the fuzzy clustering analysis method.A quantitative recursive analysis method is adopted to equalize and adjust the carrying capacity output of power communication network,and an adaptive baud interval equalization method is used to predict the carrying capacity of power communication network.Simulation results show that the proposed method has a good result of load balancing,feature information clustering and small prediction error,which is of great application value in smart grid design.

关 键 词：智能电网 电力通信 网络 承载力 预测 信道负载 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]