产业技术视角下锡产业演进阶段识别分析——基于时变参数生产函数模型  

Analysis on the Evolution Stage Identification of Tin Industry from the Industrial Technology Perspective:Based on Time-varying Parameter Production Function Model

作　　者：徐爽 刘春学 陈凯[1] 李敏 焦阳 Xu Shuang;Liu Chunxue;Chen Kai;Li Min;Jiao Yang(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Urban and Environment,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110819 [2]云南财经大学城市与环境学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《技术经济》2020年第3期111-118,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目“基于裂隙三维空间分布的矿区地下水流动模拟研究”(41562017);国家社会科学基金重大项目“建立能源和水资源消耗,建设用地总量和强度双控市场化机制研究”(15ZDC034);河北省社会科学基金重大项目“我省创新驱动高质量发展治理体系研究”(HB19ZD04);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“能源价格扭曲对能源效率影响研究”(N162301001)。

摘　　要：技术进步在产业演进过程中发挥了重要作用,是产业演进的根本动力。通过建立时变参数生产函数模型,设定状态方程和量测方程,利用卡尔曼滤波法求解出每年各技术指标的具体数值,再根据产业技术视角下产业演进的判定标准,对中国锡产业所处的演进阶段及分界点做出近似测度。研究结果表明:技术指标变化可用来识别锡产业演进阶段;中国锡产业目前表现出衰退期特征;锡产业演进规律受到产业性质的制约。根据锡产业表现出的阶段性特征和其内在的演进规律,有利于政府部门制定战略性资源型产业发展规划,为产业选择提供依据。As the fundamental driving force,technology roles importantly in the process of industrial evolution.This paper established a time-varying parameter production function model and set the state equation and the measurement equation of Chinese tin industry.Then the technical index in each year was calculated using the Kalman filtering algorithm and the industrial evolution stages were distinguished according to the criteria under the industrial technology perspective.The application show that the technical change indicators can be used to identify the evolution stage of tin industry,the tin industry in China currently showed the characteristics of recession period,the evolution law of tin industry is restricted by the nature of industry.According to the stage characteristics of the tin industry and its inherent evolutionary rules,it is beneficial for government departments to formulate strategic resource-based industrial development plans and provides a basis for industrial selection.

关 键 词：产业技术视角 锡产业演进阶段 时变参数 卡尔曼滤波法 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]