运输航空飞行安全风险评价方法  

Flight risk assessment method of transport aviation

作　　者：王剑辉[1,2] 邓伟 夏正洪 万健[1,2] WANG Jianhui;DENG Wei;XIA Zhenghong;WAN Jian(School of Air Traffic Control,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618307,China;China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉618307 [2]中国民航科学技术研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2019年第12期110-116,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空联合项目资助(U1733105);四川省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2019YFG0308)。

摘　　要：为研究中国民用运输航空飞行安全风险,提出一种基于不安全事件调查报告和快速访问记录器(QAR)数据的运输航空飞行安全风险评价方法。首先,依据风险源事件后果严重程度不同将风险分为显性风险和隐性风险,再根据风险源事件的10年平均风险贡献度大小将风险分为直接风险和或有风险,进而得到运输航空飞行安全风险分类;然后,建立运输航空飞行安全风险评价指标体系和风险评价模型;最后,以2017年中国民用运输航空实际运行不安全事件和QAR超限事件数据验证所提评价指标体系和模型的合理性。结果表明:运输航空飞行安全风险评价结果与该年度中国民航航空安全报告中安全风险分析结论基本一致。In order to study flight risks of transport aviation in China,an evaluation method of it is proposed based on survey reports of unsafe events and QAR data.Firstly,risks were divided into dominant risk and recessive risk according to severity of event consequences,and direct risk and contingent risk according to their ten-year average contribution degree so as to obtain flight risk classification of transport aviation.Then,a risk assessment index system and a model were developed.Finally,their rationality was verified with data of actual unsafe events and QAR over-limit events of civil transport aviation of China in 2017.The results show that the evaluation is consistent with safety risk analysis conclusions of 2017 CAAC aviation safety report.

关 键 词：运输航空 风险评价 快速访问记录器(QAR)数据 平均风险贡献度 超限事件 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V351[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]