化学灾害中个体风险感知的系统动力学建模与仿真研究  

System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Individual Risk Perception in Chemical Disaster

作　　者：王中邮 张春颜 Wang Zhongyou;Zhang Chunyan(College of Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济与管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第9期163-169,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学青年基金项目“情景分析视角下重大灾害引发社会危机的机制和防控研究”(16CSH038)。

摘　　要：化学灾害发生后,个体风险感知水平和客观风险水平之间的差距会进一步影响其行为倾向和后续决策,运用系统动力学软件Vensim构建模型来研究二者之间差值的拟合过程,可以更为清晰的看出风险地传播过程,特别是化学事故所引发的舆情风险和污染风险的传播情况,进而得出控制风险的几个关键时间点以及相关措施。After the occurrence of chemical disasters,the gap between individual risk perception level and objective risk level will further affect their behavior tendency and follow-up decision.Using the system dynamics software Vensim to build a model to study the fitting process of the difference between the two,we can see the spread process of risk more clearly,especially the spread of public opinion risk and pollution risk caused by chemical accidents.Next,several key time points and related measures to control the risk are obtained.

关 键 词：系统动力学 仿真建模 风险感知 化学灾害 舆情 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F272.35[经济管理—企业管理]