广义回归估计量在中国农业抽样调查中的应用研究  

On Generalized Regression Estimator Applied in Chinese Agricultural Sampling Survey

作　　者：杨贵军 沈文静[1] YANG Gui-jun;SHEN Wen-jing(School of Statistics,Tianjin University ofFinance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China;China Center of Economics&Statistics Research,Tianjin University ofFinance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计学院,天津300222 [2]天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心,天津300222

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第6期10-16,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“劣者淘汰两阶段自适应临床试验的设计和分析”(11471239);天津市2019年度哲学社会科学规划重点课题“大数据背景下多目标抽样设计的理论和应用”(TJTJ19-001);全国统计科学研究计划重点项目“大数据背景下住户调查理论与应用研究”(2017LZ25)。

摘　　要：当前对中国农业抽样调查总体参数估计方法的研究不足,对可充分利用辅助信息的总体参数广义回归估计量的研究也较少,为此剖析广义回归估计量应用于中国农业抽样调查的可行性和适用性。首先,探索中国背景下潜在的辅助信息来源及其具体用途,研究广义回归估计量的构造方法,以及如何使用刀切法构建广义回归估计量的方差估计。其次,利用第三次全国农业普查数据,针对中国畜禽抽样调查,对广义回归估计量和赫维茨—汤普森估计量进行模拟比较,验证广义回归估计量的优良性。最后,通过实例演示广义回归估计量及其方差估计在中国农业抽样调查中具有有效性。该研究有助于提高中国农业抽样调查总体参数估计的可靠性,并为未来中国农业抽样调查的方案设计提供了理论依据。Now,the research on the population parameters estimation method in Chinese agricultural sampling survey is insufficient.There are few researches on the generalized regression estimator which can make full use of auxiliary information.The feasibility and applicability of generalized regression estimator in Chinese agricultural sampling survey are verified.Firstly,explore the potential auxiliary information sources and their specific uses in the Chinese context,study the construction method of generalized regression estimator,and use the jackknife method to build variance estimation of generalized regression estimator.Secondly,based on the third national agricultural census data,a simulation comparison between the generalized regression estimator and the Horvitz-Thompson estimator in Chinese livestock and poultry sampling survey is conducted to demonstrate the properties of the generalized regression estimator.Finally,an example is showed that the generalized regression estimator and its variance estimator methods are practical in Chinese agricultural sampling survey.It contributes to improve the accuracy of the population parameters estimation in Chinese agricultural sampling survey and to provide theoretical guideline for the future Chinese agricultural sampling survey design.

关 键 词：农业抽样调查 总体参数估计 辅助信息 广义回归估计量 刀切法 

分 类 号：C829[社会学—统计学]