新型冠状病毒肺炎的斑块模型:围堵策略对重庆疫情控制的效果讨论  

A Patch Model of COVID-19:the Effects of Containment on Chongqing

作　　者：邹兰[1] 阮士贵[2] ZOU Lan;RUAN SHiGUi(School of Mathematics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,China;Department of Mathematics,University of Miami,Coral Gables,FL 33146,USA)

机构地区：[1]四川大学数学学院,成都610064 [2]迈阿密大学数学系,佛罗里达州珊瑚墙市33146,美国

出　　处：《应用数学学报》2020年第2期310-323,共14页Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11831012,11771168);美国国家自然科学基金(DMS-1853622)资助项目.

摘　　要：本文利用一个斑块模型研究新型冠状病毒肺炎的地域扩散及控制,通过分析无病平衡点和计算基本再生数,探讨了控制疾病异地和局部扩散的措施.重庆与湖北相邻,人口流动频繁,疫情前期有不少从湖北输入的病例.我们将两个斑块模型用来刻画新型冠状病毒肺炎由湖北向重庆的扩散,通过数值模拟和敏感分析,阐明将封城与其他围堵策略,包括提高病例发现与隔离效率,提高密切接触者追踪与管理效率,增加人际距离,个人预防措施及环境卫生措施等相结合得以消灭疫情.本文所用数据和信息都是国内外权威部门公布的公开数据和信息或经过脱敏处理的数据和信息.In this paper,we constructed a multi-patch endemic model to characterize the geographic spread of the coronavirus disease(COVID-19).Since Hubei was the epicenter of this COVID-19 outbreak in China and Chongqing is a neighbor municipality sharing direct airway,high-speed railway,highway,and waterway transportation,we applied 2-patch model to describe the spatial spread of COVID-19 between these two provinces and to calibrate the reported infected cases data from these two provinces.By preforming the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters,we examined the effects of various control strategies such as closing the border,quarantining the exposed individuals,isolating and treating the infected individuals,and so on.It is found that closing the border alone is not enough to control the outbreak and a comprehensive strategy that combines several measures is required to eliminate this infectious disease.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 斑块模型 基本再生数 地理扩散 封城 湖北 重庆 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]