住房空置率对房价的影响——基于35个重点城市的面板数据  

The influence of vacancy rate on housing price:Based on panel data of 35 key cities

作　　者：王洁 张继良[1] WANG Jie;ZHANG Jiliang(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院,南京210023

出　　处：《资源科学》2020年第6期1135-1147,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BJY030)。

摘　　要：住房价格一直是政府与百姓都密切关注的问题,同时高房价下的高空置率也一直普遍存在,引发众多关注,但是当前空置率是否抑制了房价的上涨有待研究。为此,本文以2007—2016年中国35个重点城市的商品房销售均价为研究对象,通过构建固定影响变系数模型,分析住房空置率及控制变量对房价波动的影响。结果表明:空置率是引起中国城市房价波动的主要因素,空置率的上升一定程度上会抑制房价的上涨;同时房价还受到其他因素的影响,土地出让价格上涨是推动房价上涨的重要因素,人均收入对房价有一定影响,建成区人口密度对房价影响存在分化。不同规模城市的房价波动存在较大差异,主要受到空置率的影响,一线城市、二线发达城市、三线城市空置率对房价的负效应较大;三线城市土地出让价格对房价的作用不显著,一线城市人口过密对房价产生向上推力。总结而言,空置率是抑制房价上涨的主要因素,也是造成不同规模城市房价波动差异的主要原因。Housing price has been a closely concerned issue of the government and the people.High vacancy rate under the high housing price is a common phenomenon,causing many concerns.However,whether the high vacancy rate can restrain the rise of housing price remains to be studied.For this reason,the authors took the average selling price of commercial housing in 35 key cities of China from 2007 to 2016 as the research object.By constructing a variable coefficient model with fixed influence,we analyzed the influence of housing vacancy rate and control variables on the fluctuation of housing price.The results are as follows.Vacancy rate is the main factor that caused the fluctuation of housing price in China,and the rise of vacancy rate restrained the rise of housing price to a certain extent.At the same time,housing price was also affected by other factors.The increase of land selling price was an important factor that induced the rise of housing price.Per capita income had a certain impact on housing price.The impact of population density on housing price in built-up areas was different.The fluctuation of housing price in different classes of cities was very different,which was mainly affected by vacancy rate.The vacancy rate of the first tier cities,second tier developed cities,and third tier cities had a greater negative effect on housing price.The land transfer price in the third tier cities had no significant effect on housing price.The population density of the first tier cities caused an upward thrust on the housing price.In conclusion,high vacancy rate was the main factor to restrain the rise of house price,and it was also the main reason for the difference of housing price fluctuation in different class of cities.

关 键 词：住房空置率 房价 土地出让价格 面板数据模型 中国 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]