基于多元利益冲突的特大型工程项目社会稳定风险预警研究  

Research on Early Warning of Social Stability Risk of Extra Large Engineering Projects Based on Multiple Interest Conflicts

作　　者：黄德春[1,2,3] 冯同祖 Huang Dechun;Feng Tongzu(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization,Nanjing 211100,China;Institute of Industrial Economics,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学产业经济研究所,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第15期224-230,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“面向多元利益冲突放大的特大型工程项目社会稳定风险形成机理与治理研究”(71573072)、“社会网络媒介化中重大工程环境损害的社会稳定风险传播机理与防范策略”(71603070);江苏高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队项目“‘一带一路’战略背景下澜湄合作创新与风险管控”(2017ZSTD002)。

摘　　要：使用贝叶斯网络作为工具,以贝叶斯网络中的节点代替利益相关者和利益诉求风险,连接节点有向边代替利益冲突,进而构建预警模型,实现基于多元利益冲突对社会稳定风险的预警,从利益相关者视角对社会稳定风险的预防。实证结果表明,该预警模型能较好的分析工程建设期间利益冲突的变化,定位风险源泉,对降低工程建设所在地社会稳定性风险,具有一定参考借鉴意义。Using Bayesian network as a tool,the node in Bayesian network replaces stakeholders and interest claim risk,and the connection node has a directed edge instead of conflict of interest,so as to build an early warning model.It realizes the early warning of social stability risk based on multi-interest conflict,and prevents social stability risk from the perspective of stakeholders.The empirical results show that the early warning model can better analyze the changes of interest conflicts during the construction period,locate the source of risk,and reduce the risk of social stability in the construction site,which has a certain reference significance.

关 键 词：特大型工程项目 社会稳定风险 贝叶斯网络 多元利益冲突 

分 类 号：F272.35[经济管理—企业管理]