陕西省水资源利用与经济增长动态关系的VAR模型分析  

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province Based on the VAR Model

作　　者：李双 李哲 杜建括 王淑新[2] 邢海虹[1] LI Shuang;LI Zhe;DU Jiankuo;WANG Shuxin;XING Haihong(School of Historical Culture and Tourism,Shaanxi University of Technology,Hanzhong Shaanxi 723001,China;Institute of Territorial Economic,Shaanxi University of Technology,Hanzhong Shaanxi 723001,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西理工大学历史文化与旅游学院,陕西汉中723001 [2]陕西理工大学区域经济研究所,陕西汉中723001

出　　处：《生态经济》2020年第10期146-154,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划一般项目“濒危植物珙桐属(Davidia)叶片对雾水的吸收利用研究”(2018JQ4029);陕西省教育厅科学研究计划专项项目“陕西秦巴山区气候与农业种植关系研究”(16JK1160);陕西理工大学人才启动项目“我国秦巴山区气候变化研究”(SLGKYQD2-31)。

摘　　要：运用VAR模型,通过ADF检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,对2000—2016年陕西省水资源与经济增长的动态关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)陕西省及其三大地区的总GDP、农业产值、工业产值与其相应的用水量之间存在长期均衡关系;(2)由脉冲响应轨迹分析可知,陕西省及各地区经济参数与其用水量参数彼此间的影响总体表现为短期较强烈,长期彼此间的影响越来越弱,但三大地区经济增长与水资源利用关系的具体表现形式又有一定差异;(3)由方差分解分析可知,因资源、环境与经济发展状况的不同,陕西省及各地区经济参数与其用水量参数彼此间的贡献度存在明显的区域差异。Based on the VAR model,the dynamic relationship between Shaanxi's utilization of water resources and economic growth from 2000 to 2016 is analyzed by using ADF test,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis.The results show that:(1)the gross GDP,agricultural output value and industrial output value has long-term equilibrium relationship with total water consumption,agricultural water,and industrial water respectively in Shaanxi Province and its three regions.(2)According to the impulse response analysis,there are strong mutual influences between economic parameters and water consumption parameters on short-term in Shaanxi Province and its three regions and the influence weaken gradually on long-term.However,there are some differences in the specific manifestations of the relationship between economic growth and water resources utilization in the three regions.(3)According to the analysis of variance decomposition,Due to the differences in resources,environment and economic development,there are obvious regional differences in the contribution degree between economic parameters and water consumption parameters in Shaanxi Province and its three regions.

关 键 词：水资源利用 经济增长 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]