基于GIS与AHP属性辨识模型的地质灾害危险性评价——以涪陵页岩气开采区为例  

Geologic Hazard Risk Assessment Based on GIS and AHP Attribute Identification Model:Taking Exploration Area of Fuling Shale Gasfield as an Example

作　　者：文桃[1,2] 周自强 应赛[1] 王升[1,3] 白双莱[1] 周江生[1] WEN Tao;ZHOU Ziqiang;YING Sai;WANG Sheng;BAI Shuanglai;ZHOU Jiangsheng(Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Structure Full-Life-Cycle Health Detection and Disaster Prevention,Yangtze Normal University,Fuling Chongqing 408100;Geological Hazards Prevention Institute,Gansu Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000;Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center,Shandong University,Ji'nan 250061,China)

机构地区：[1]长江师范学院,重庆市建筑物全生命周期健康检测与灾害防治工程研究中心,重庆涪陵408100 [2]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,兰州730000 [3]山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心,济南250061

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期68-74,F0002,F0003,共9页Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.51722904);重庆市教育委员会科技项目(No.KJ1601217);甘肃省科学院青年项目(No.2019QN-04);甘肃省科学院创新团队项目(No.CX201801);甘肃省科学院应用研究与开发项目(No.2018KJ-05);教育部春晖计划项目(No.Z2016178)。

摘　　要：【目的】建立新的区域性地质灾害评价模型,对涪陵页岩气开采区的地质灾害危险性进行评价。【方法】根据涪陵页岩气开采区的地质、水文和气候特征,选取归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地类型、坡度、坡高、年峰值周降雨量、年峰值日降雨量等6个主要因素作为评价指标。基于GIS平台,采用AHP属性辨识模型对研究区的地质灾害进行危险性评价。【结果】涪陵页岩气开采区的地质灾害危险性较高,极高危险区面积为146.6km^2,高危险区面积为743.6km^2,两者分别占开采区总面积的9.6%和52.8%。通过开采区173个历史地质灾害点的验证表明,评价的地质灾害危险性区划与历史地质灾害点的空间分布一致,其中98个分布于极高危险区,56个分布于高危险区,分布于中危险区和低危险区的仅有19个。用受试者工作特征曲线法对上述评价结果进行精度评估,曲线下的面积百分比达82.8%,验证了评价模型的可行性。【结论】研究结果对涪陵页岩气开采区输气管线、道路和房建等的规划和防灾减灾具有重要指导意义。[Purposes]A new regional geological disaster evaluation model is established to evaluate the risk of geological disaster in Fuling shale gas development area.[Methods]According to the characteristics of geological,hydrological and climatic of Fuling shale gas production area,six main influence factors were chosen as the evaluation indices including NDVI,land type,degree of slope,height of slope,annual peak daily precipitation and annual peak weekly precipitation.Based on GIS platform,the risk assessment of geological hazard of exploration area in Fuling shale gas field is identified by using AHP attribute identification model.[Findings]The results show that the risk of geological hazard of exploration area in Fuling shale gas field is high,the extremely high hazard area of 146.6 km^2 and the high hazard area of 743.6 km^2 take up 9.6% and 47.8% respectively in total exploration area.The high accuracy of proposed model is verified by 173 geological hazard points with historical records in research area,for resulting the risk zoning of geological disaster based on the evaluation results is consistent with the spatial distribution of geological hazard points,the spatial distribution show that 98 points distribute in extremely high hazard area,56 points distribute in high hazard area,and only 19 points distribute in moderate and low hazard area.Using ROC curve to evaluate the accuracy of geological disaster evaluation results,the AUC value is 82.8%,showing that the evaluation model is reasonable.[Conclusions]The conclusion presents important references for construction planning of gas transmission pipelines,roads and buildings and disaster prevention and mitigation in exploration area.

关 键 词：地质灾害 危险性评价 AHP属性辨识模型 GIS 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]