基于概率论的车辆排队长度测量方法  

Method for estimation of vehicle queues length based on probability theory

作　　者：李津[1] 王鹏 李泊霖 魏小忠 LI Jin;WANG Peng;LI Bolin;WEI Xiaozhong(Transportation College,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《江苏大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期557-561,共5页Journal of Jiangsu University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51378237)。

摘　　要：为了更好地分析交叉口车流情况,为交通流检测、交通拥堵识别提供数据,依据概率论,对交叉口的车辆排队长度进行研究.将离散的驶入交叉口的车辆数和驶离交叉口的车辆数与时间拟合成车辆数-时间曲线,通过建立起始修正时间用于修正车辆通过交叉口上游到交叉口之间的行驶时间,并建立速度-距离模型分析车辆行驶状态推导起始修正时间的计算方法,最后通过微积分方法推导出交叉口车辆排队长度的计算方法.采取了长春市红旗街与湖西路交叉口的交通数据为例,对该方法进行试验验证.结果表明:该方法数据采集方便,设施布设简单,便于大规模应用;在16个时间点中,有14个时间点的排队长度相对误差E小于6%,可见计算较为准确,可以作为交叉口车辆排队长度的测量方法.In order to analyze the intersection traffic conditions better and provide data for traffic flow detection and traffic congestion identification,the vehicle queue length of intersection was investigated based on the probability theory.The number of vehicles into/out the intersection and time were used to fit vehicle-time curve.The correction of starting time was established for revising the time from the vehicle driving into the intersection to the vehicle leaving the intersection.The speed-distance model was established to deduce the correction of starting time by analyzing the traffic flow status,and the calculation method of the vehicle queue length was deduced by the differential and integral calculus method.The Hongqi street and Huxi road intersection traffic data in Changchun city were taken as example,and the experiment was carried out to verify the method.The results show that the method can conveniently collect data with simple facility layout,which makes the method easier for large-scale application.The relative errors of E of 14 time points in 16 time points are less than 6%in the queue length,which illuminates that the calculation method is accurate enough for the measurement of vehicle queue length of intersection.

关 键 词：交叉口 车辆排队长度 概率论理论 起始修正时间 速度-距离模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]