我国碳排放权交易市场活跃度研究——基于碳价时间序列的测算  

Research on the Active Degree of Carbon Emission Trading Market in China——Calculation Based on Carbon Price Time Series

作　　者：郭蕾[1] 赵方芳 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第7期98-101,179,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目《中国碳排放权交易试点政策的实施效果研究》(批准号:17YJA630024)。

摘　　要：推进建立全国统一碳市场,有效控制和逐步减少碳排放,对降低全社会碳排放成本,推动经济向绿色低碳转型具有重要意义。本文基于碳价时间序列进行测算,对七个试点地方碳交易市场的有效性进行探索性研究,运用分形市场假说,采用重标级差分析法,以各试点每日有效交易碳价为研究变量,实证分析了试点碳市场的有效性。研究表明:(1)我国地方碳交易市场已初具规模,但市场活跃度还有待提高;(2)七个碳交易市场的H指数均显著大于0.5,意味着碳交易市场未能达到弱型有效市场标准,市场活跃程度不高。分析其原因:无论是碳交易的流动性低还是碳价低都表明,碳配额分配的总量过于宽松,使得碳价非市场化程度严重。但同时,不能否认我国利用碳市场让控排企业进行碳排放权自由交易,能够最大化实现资源的最优配置,有效地推动我国碳减排。It is of great significance to promote the economic transformation to green and low-carbon.Based on the calculation of carbon price time series,this paper has conducted an exploratory research on the effectiveness of seven Carbon Trading Pilot Market.Based on the Fractal Market Hypothesis,and by adopting the re-rating difference analysis method,taking the daily effective trading carbon price of each pilot market as the research variable,this paper empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market.The results show that:(1)China's seven carbon trading market pilots have begun to take shape,but the market activity still needs to be improved;(2)The H index of all 7 carbon trading markets is significantly greater than 0.5,meaning that the carbon trading markets fail to meet the standard of weak efficient market and the market activity is lower than expected.However,it cannot be denied that China's attempt of the carbon market to allow enterprises to trade freely of the carbon emission rights can maximize the optimal allocation of resources and effectively promote China's carbon emission reduction.Therefore,this paper only calculates that the operation of the carbon market has not reached the efficiency from the perspective of carbon price,which cannot deny the necessity and advantage of the construction of the carbon trading market.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some practical suggestions for the further construction of the national carbon trading market in China.

关 键 词：绿色发展 碳交易市场 碳交易价格 分形市场假说 重标级差分析 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]