高中阶段职普比影响因素实证研究——基于86个国家的面板数据  

Empirical Study on the Factors of Enrollment Scale Ratio of Secondary Vocational School to General High School——Based on the Panel Data of 86 Countries

作　　者：温静怡 刘云波[2] Wen Jingyi;Liu Yunbo(College of Education of Renmin University of China;Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学教育学院,北京100872 [2]北京师范大学教育学部职业与成人教育研究所,北京100875

出　　处：《职业技术教育》2020年第28期6-12,共7页Vocational and Technical Education

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)“高中阶段职普比的影响因素研究——基于World Bank数据库”(20XNH043),主持人:温静怡。

摘　　要：关于是否应大力发展中等职业教育,国际上一直存在争议。以世界银行统计数据库中86个国家1998年至2018年的面板数据为样本,统计分析了经济、教育和人口等对职普结构的影响,研究发现:一个国家的人均GDP与其职普比呈现倒U型关系,一个国家的第二产业比重和高中毛入学率均对其职普比有显著的正向影响,一个国家初中在校生数和高等教育毛入学率越高其职普比越低,中等收入国家和高收入国家所得研究结论基本一致。据此建议,要结合一个国家的社会经济发展实际,根据产业发展水平、学龄人口数量和教育体系的整体设计来确定合理的中等职业教育发展规模。For a long time,there has been a dispute about whether secondary vocational education should be vigorously developed in the world.Based on the panel data of 86 countries from 1998 to 2018 in the World Bank statistical database,this paper analyzes the factors that have effects on the enrolment ratio of upper secondary vocational education to upper secondary general education from the perspective of economy,education and population.The results show that the per capita GDP and the ratio have an inverted U-shaped relationship.With the increasing of per capita GDP,the ratio will rise first and then decline;the proportion of secondary industry,the gross enrollment rate of upper secondary education both have a significant positive impact on the ratio;in addition,the higher the number of junior high school students,the lower the ratio.There is a negative relationship between the gross enrollment rate of higher education and the ratio.The results show that the research conclusions of middle-income countries and high-income countries are basically the same.

关 键 词：职普比 中等职业教育 高中阶段教育 影响因素 

分 类 号：G719.21[文化科学—职业技术教育学]