基于Copula模型的机翼结冰飞行风险定量评估方法研究  

Research on Quantitative Evaluation Method of Flight Risk under Condition of Ice Formation on Wings Based on Copula Model

作　　者：段效聪 徐浩军[1] 张久星 易贤 宣远勃 DUAN Xiaocong;XU Haojun;ZHANG Jiuxing;YI Xi’an;XUAN Yuanbo(Aeronautics Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710038,China;Uint of 93756,Tianjin 300131,China;Key Laboratory of Icing and Anti/De-icing,China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center,Mianyang 621000,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学航空工程学院,西安710038 [2]93756部队,天津300131 [3]中国空气动力研究写发展中心结冰与防除冰重点实验室,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期17-22,共6页Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家973计划(2015CB755802);国家自然科学基金(61873351)。

摘　　要：结冰条件下飞行风险定量评估可以为飞机结冰适航验证提供参考指标。提出了极值理论与Copular模型相结合的机翼结冰条件下风险定量评估方法。基于人-机-环复杂动力学模型进行蒙特卡罗仿真实验,提取了关键飞行参数(空速、滚转角和迎角)极值。利用辨识得到的参数进行拟合优度检验,验证了Joe Copula模型能够较为准确描述三维极值参数联合分布形式。通过建立的风险概率判据计算了飞行风险概率,分析表明结冰风险事件往往伴随着飞行安全关键参数不同程度的超限和耦合影响。所提方法可为结冰条件下的飞行风险定量评估和预测管控提供理论参考依据。The quantitative assessment of flight risk under condition of ice formation on wings can provide reference indicators for aircraft icing airworthiness verification.A quantitative risk assessment method of the extreme value theory combined with the Copular model for wings under condition of ice formation is proposed.Monte Carlo simulation experiments being made based on the complex dynamics model of pilot-aircraft-environment,the extreme values of key flight parameters(airspeed,roll angle and AOA)are extracted.The goodness of fit test is made by using the identified parameters.Joe Copula model can more accurately describe the joint distribution of three-dimensional extreme value parameters in verification.The flight risk probability is calculated through the established risk probability criterion.The analysis shows that icing risk events are often to the accompaniment of varying degrees of overrun and coupled effects of key flight safety parameters.The proposed method can provide a theoretical reference for the quantitative assessment and predictive control of flight risk under icing conditions.

关 键 词：机翼结冰 极值理论 蒙特卡罗法 COPULA模型 参数辨识 飞行风险概率 

分 类 号：V212.1[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]