基于GWR模型的成渝城市群生态系统服务时空演变及驱动因素研究  

Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem services in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration of southwestern China based on GWR model

作　　者：邵明[1] 董宇翔 林辰松[1] Shao Ming;Dong Yuxiang;Lin Chensong(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083 [2]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2020年第11期118-129,共12页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2017ZY11);北京市共建项目(2015BLUREE01);北京市重点研发计划项目(D171100007117003);国家自然科学基金项目(51908036)。

摘　　要：【目的】对成渝城市群自然生态系统服务时空演变特征与驱动因素进行研究,有助于规划者从宏观尺度上掌握其自然资源存量情况与发展趋势,合理拟定成渝城市群规划建设策略,从而推动我国西部大开发平台建设。【方法】选择成渝城市群为研究对象,以144个市、县、区作为研究单元,通过当量因子法量化其生态系统服务,建立"自然-社会"驱动因子指标体系,在此基础上运用最小二乘法(OLS)模型筛选具有显著相关性的驱动因子,运用地理加权回归(GWR)构建回归模型,研究成渝城市群自然社会因素对生态系统服务的驱动作用。【结果】(1)成渝城市群生态系统服务总量劣化趋势显著,1995-2015年间(1995、2000、2005、2010、2015年,共5期)成渝城市群生态系统服务价值分别为3 470.53亿、3 464.08亿、3 452.43亿、3 438.02亿和3 423.92亿元,分别比前一期下降6.45亿、11.65亿、14.40亿和14.10亿元;(2)成渝城市群生态系统服务空间分布以成都、重庆两处核心城市中心区与缙云-中梁山脉中心区呈现显著区域化分布特征,全域超过90.38%的区域生态系统服务均处于下降趋势;(3)降雨量、温度、单位面积平均GDP、林业用地比例、人口密度5项驱动因子对成渝城市群生态系统服务具有显著影响。其中,降雨量、单位面积平均GDP呈现较明显的负相关驱动特征,林地覆盖比例呈现较明显的正相关驱动特征,降雨量与人口密度则呈现较明显的两极化趋势。【结论】本研究明确了在研究期限内成渝城市群生态系统服务逐渐劣化的发展状态,所构建的地理加权回归(GWR)模型在空间层面上量化降雨量、温度、单位面积平均GDP、林业用地比例、人口密度5项主要驱动因素对成渝城市群生态系统服务所呈现的不同驱动特征与驱动强度,为成渝城市群长远规划提供决策依据。[Objective]The study on the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving factors of the ecosystem services of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration can help planners grasp its situation of natural resource stock and development trend on a macro scale,reasonably formulate the planning and construction strategy of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration of southwestern China,so as to promote the construction of China’s western development platform.[Method]In this study,the whole region of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was selected as the research object,and 144 districts,counties and regions were taken as the research units.The values of ecosystem services were quantified by equivalent factor method,and the bi-directional driving factor index system of“natural environment-social economy”was established.On this basis,the least square method(OLS)model was used to screen the driving factor models with significant correlation,and the geographical weighted regression(GWR)model was used to study the driving correlation between the ecosystem services,natural environment characteristics and socioeconomic factors of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.[Result](1)The total amount of ecosystem services of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration showed a significant trend of deterioration.From 1995 to 2015(totally 5 periods,i.e.1995,2000,2005,2010,2015),the ecosystem service values of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration were 347.053,346.408,345.243,343.802 and 342.392 billion CNY,respectively,showing a value decline of 0.645 billion,1.165 billion,1.440 billion and 1.410 billion CNY,respectively compared with the former period.(2)The spatial distribution of ecosystem services in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was characterized by significant regional distribution in the core urban centers of Chengdu and Chongqing and the central area of Jinyun-Zhongliang Mountains.More than 90.38%of the regional ecosystem services in the whole region were in a downward trend.(3)Research results on ecological d

关 键 词：成渝城市群 生态系统服务 地理加权回归 驱动因素 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] S718.5[农业科学—林学]