GNSS在中国大陆的地震预测应用研究进展与展望  

Progress and Prospect of Earthquake Forecasting Based on GNSS Data in China

作　　者：江在森[1,2] 武艳强 邹镇宇[1] 方颖[1] 魏文薪[1] 刘晓霞[1] 赵静[2] Jiang Zaisen;Wu Yanqiang;Zou Zhenyu;Fang Ying;Wei Wenxin;Liu Xiaoxia;Zhao Jing(Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,CEA,Beijing 100036,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;The First Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,Tianjin 300180,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [3]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180

出　　处：《中国地震》2020年第4期693-707,共15页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503606);国家自然科学基金(41974011)共同资助。

摘　　要：GNSS技术的快速发展为地震预测研究提供了前所未有的大尺度、高精度的观测结果,为强震变形模型的发展提供了可靠的观测约束。本文针对GNSS技术在中国大陆地震预测中的应用,系统梳理了断裂带滑动特征描述、变形场动态演化解析、应变集中过程识别、潜在震源危险程度判断等方面的研究进展。通过典型震例总结了GNSS资料在长、中、短临不同的地震预测阶段的应用。针对地震中长期预测,基于构造动力过程给出了强震危险性时空逼近的科学思路,即"板块边界动力作用—大-中尺度动态形变场—应力应变增强/集中区—孕震危险段中短期危险性的时空逼近"的过程。在此基础上,针对GNSS监测能力提升、地震孕育过程相关的多尺度地壳形变动态信息获取、GNSS多参量动力学模型构建及产出等问题进行了讨论和发展展望。总体而言,GNSS技术的应用显著增强了我国地震预测的地壳形变观测基础支撑,丰富了对大陆地震孕育发生物理过程的科学认识,推动了大陆地震预测科学思路和预测方法的发展,并促进了地震预测由经验预测向物理预测的拓展。The development of GNSS observations have provided unprecedented large-scale and high-precision data which has acted as the model constraints for earthquake forecasting research.In this paper,we summarized the research progress of the application of GNSS in earthquake forecasting in the Chinese mainland,including the fault slipping feature description,dynamic deformation field analysis,strain concentration process identification,rupture risk judgment of the potential focal,and etc.Taking some typical earthquake events as examples,we analyzed the applications of GNSS data in the long-term,medium-term,short-term and imminent-stage earthquake forecasting.For the mid-long-term forecasting,a scientific idea of the time-space approximation for the strong earthquake are presented,that is,the process of plate boundary dynamic loading to large-medium scale dynamic deformation adjustment,to stress-strain concentration,to temporal and spatial approximation of the short and to medium-term rupture risk.On this basis,issues such as the improvement of GNSS monitoring capabilities,the identification of multi-scale crustal deformation dynamic information that related to the earthquake process,the construction of multi-parameter dynamic models with GNSS data are discussed and prospected.In general,the GNSS surveying has significantly enhanced the acquisition capability of the crustal deformation information for earthquake forecasting in the Chinese mainland,and enriched the scientific understanding of the physical process for the continental earthquake.Meanwhile,it has promoted the scientific ideas and methods developments for the continental earthquake forecasting,and accelerated the earthquake forecasting expansion from empirical to physical stage.

关 键 词：强震变形过程 GNSS应变率场 断层闭锁程度 强震孕育晚期 强震物理预测 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]