居民用电行为分析及潜力研究  

Analysis of residential electricity use behavior and potential research

作　　者：杨宏 邓晨成 邹芹[1] 石莹 YANG Hong;DENG Chencheng;ZOU Qin;SHI Ying(Wuhan Power Supply company of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430000 Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]国网武汉供电公司,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《电力大数据》2020年第12期80-88,共9页Power Systems and Big Data

摘　　要：居民用电水平的不断提高也对配供电工作提出了极大的挑战,如何保证居民高峰用电、平稳居民用电成为各供电公司需要关注的重点问题。本项目通过对武汉市居民用电情况的梳理和分析,以海量样本台区分时负荷、居民用电量、房价、小区建成年份等关键数据为基础,从电价政策、电力供应能力、需求侧管理措施、气温气候等负荷特性方面出发,以居民日基本负荷和夏季降温负荷为研究对象,进行聚类分析,深入研究各类居民用电行为特征和影响,建立多元回归模型,构建拟合函数,对武汉市未来居民用电量展开预测,研究得出以下成果:①台区用电负荷具有节日特征和季节特征;②不同节假日台区日负荷曲线具有较明显差异;③居民用电受温度因素影响较大;④居民用户在节假日平均每天比平时多用电0.17kW·h;电价每提高0.1元,居民平均每日用电就会下降1.5kW·h;⑤武汉市预计在2040年前后居民用电增长趋缓,预计在2050年左右达到饱和。The continuous improvement of the level of residential electricity also poses a great challenge to the distribution of power supply.How to ensure the peak and stable residential electric ity consumption has become a key issue that needs to be paid attention to by all power supply companies.The project of wuhan residential electricity situation of carding and analysis,with huge amounts of sample area time-sharing load,year of resident power consumption,housing,community built the basis of the key data,such as the electricity price policy,power supply,demand side management measures,and load characteristic temperature climate,with residents basic load and cooling load in summer as the research object,clustering analysis,in-depth study of all kinds of household electricity behavior characteristics and influence of establishing multiple regression model,build a fitting function,forecast future residents consumption in wuhan,study the following results:①The electric load of the platform has festive and seasonal characteristics;②The daily load curves of different holiday zones are obviously different;③Household electricity consumption is greatly affected by temperature;④Residents use 0.17 kW·h more electricity per day than usual on holidays;For every 0.1 yuan increase in the electricity price,the average daily electricity consumption will be reduced by 1.5 kW·h.⑤It is estimated that Wuhan's residential electricity consumption growth will slow down around 2040 and reach saturation around 2050.

关 键 词：居民用电行为 聚类算法 负荷曲线 特征分析 用电预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]