县域资源环境承载力系统动力学评价研究  

Establishment and Evaluation of County-level Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：许文豪 罗涛[1] 刘江 XU Wenhao;LUO Tao;LIU Jiang(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2020年第8期192-199,共8页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划:基于控碳体系的县域城镇规划技术研究(2018YFC0704703)。

摘　　要：该研究以浙江省长兴县为例,从水资源、土地资源、水环境、大气环境、人民生活水平5个要素层面构建资源环境承载力评价指标体系。运用系统动力学模型对2012-2017年长兴县资源环境承载情况进行分析,进而对2018-2035年长兴县资源环境承载力演变趋势进行预测。模型经过模拟值与历史值相互误差的有效性检验,整体相对误差为2.58%,模型能够有效模拟现实。文章旨在进一步完善和细化资源环境承载力评价方法和成果,具体体现在:(1)引入系统动力学实现资源环境承载力动态评价,为现有研究在承载力趋势预测、风险识别上提供方法上的参考。(2)基于现状发展战略规划,模拟差异化战略引导下县域资源环境承载力的变化情况。服务于资源环境承载力县域尺度特征提出的因地制宜制定发展战略要求,提供发展战略制定的参考依据。Taking Changxing County in Zhejiang Province as an example,the evaluation index system of resource and environmental carrying capacity was constructed from five factors including water resources,land resources,water environment,atmospheric environment and people’s living standard.The system dynamics model was used to analyze the bearing capacity of Changxing County from 2012 to 2017 and predict the bearing capacity from 2018 to 2035.After the validity test of the error between the simulated value and the historical value,the overall relative error is 2.58%,and it is believed that the model can effectively simulate the reality.This paper aims to improve the evaluation method of resource and environmental carrying capacity,which is embodied in introducing the system dynamics to realize dynamic evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity,which can be used as a reference for the prediction of bearing capacity trend and risk identification.The variation of county-level carrying capacity under the guidance of differentiation strategy was simulated,which would provide the basis for the formulation of development strategy.

关 键 词：县域 资源环境承载力 情景设置 模拟预测 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]