基于卫星雷达等多源资料的短时暴雨预警  

Short-term Rainstorm Warning Based on Satellite,Radar and Other Multi-source Data

作　　者：阮悦 黄铃光[2] 陈齐川[2] 陈秋萍[2] RUAN Yue;HUANG Lingguang;CHEN Qichuan;CHEN Qiuping(Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350001,China;Fujian Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350001 [2]福建省气象台,福建福州350001

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2021年第2期20-25,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：福建省气象局开放式基金项目“基于高分辨率卫星、雷达的短时暴雨预警”(2017K03);福建省科技厅自然科学基金“基于三维闪电、双偏振多普勒雷达的分类强对流预报方法研究”(2018J01060)。

摘　　要：利用2017—2018年葵花卫星(Himawari)TBB亮温资料,计算最低亮温、亮温梯度、红外与水汽亮温差和低亮温区面积及其随时间变化率等特征参量,确定短时暴雨的卫星参数阈值,并融合了雷达参数阈值及过去1 h地面加密降水实况资料,采用指标叠加法判定监测区域内某一云团未来2 h能否产生区域性短时暴雨天气,并采用交叉相关法外推云团的移动,进而对强降水云团进行预警。对2019年几次暴雨过程预报检验结果是:预警命中率(POD)为80.6%~97.1%,平均为91.0%,临界成功指数(CSI)为77.2%~79.2%,平均为77.9%,所预警的云团未来2 h影响区域出现≥30 mm/h短时暴雨站数占全省短时暴雨站数的76.4%~96.2%,平均为85.2%,整体预警效果较好。Based on the data of cloud top brightness temperature(TBB)of Himawari satellite during2017-2018,the characteristic parameters such as minimum brightness temperature,brightness temperature gradient,difference between brightness temperatures in infrared window and water vapor window and its rate of change with time,the area of low brightness temperature and its rate of change with time were calculated,and the satellite parameter threshold of short-term rainstorm was determined.At the same time,this method combines the radar parameter threshold and the actual ground encrypted precipitation data in the past one hour.We adopted the indices superposition to determined whether a cloud cluster in the monitoring area could generate regional short-term rainstorm in the next two hours,and the cross correlation method was used to extrapolate the movement of the clouds,and then prewarning to the strong falling water cloud cluster.Several experiments in 2019 forecast heavy rain process verification results showed that:the pre-warning forecast accuracy is 80.6%-97.1%,with an average of 91.0%,the critical success index ranges from 77.2%to 79.2%,and with an average of77.9%.The number of short-term rainstorm stations≥30 mm/h in the area affected by the cloud cluster in the next two hours accounts for 76.4%-96.2%,and with an average of 85.2%of the total number of short-term rainstorm stations in the province.This method used for short-term rainstorm forecast showed a good performance.

关 键 词：TBB亮温 雷达 阈值 指标叠加法 短时暴雨 预警 

分 类 号：P414.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]