基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的内蒙古地区能源消费趋势预测  

Prediction of Energy Consumption Trend in Inner Mongolia Based on Grey System GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：王娟[1] 何莉敏[1] 孙庆雪 WANG Juan;HE Li-min;SUN Qing-xue(College of Science,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学理学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《内蒙古民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期185-189,共5页Journal of Inner Mongolia Minzu University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2019MS06022)。

摘　　要：鉴于内蒙古地区的能源结构消费总量存在许多的差异,首先通过弱化缓冲及累加生成,对内蒙古地区2008—2017年能源消费总量及能源结构消费总量的数据进行处理,然后再运用GM(1,1)模型对未来10年的能源消费总量及能源消费构成部分的消费量(煤炭消费量、石油消费量、天然气消费量、水电消费量)进行预测,得到消费总量及各构成部分的消费量的总体趋势.基于对内蒙古地区能源消费趋势的预测,提出改善能源消费的相关策略与建议,进而拉动内蒙古自治区经济可持续发展.There are many differences in the total consumption of energy structure in Inner Mongolia.Firstly,the data of total energy consumption and total energy structure consumption in Inner Mongolia from 2008 to 2017 were processed by weakening buffer and cumulative generation.Then,the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the total energy consumption and the consumption of energy consumption components(coal consumption,oil con⁃sumption,natural gas consumption,water and electricity consumption)in the next decade.In addition the overall trend of total energy consumption and the consumption of each component is obtained.Based on the prediction of energy consumption trend in Inner Mongolia,this paper puts forward some relevant strategies and suggestions to improve energy consumption,so as to promote the sustainable economic development of Inner Mongolia Auton⁃omous Region.

关 键 词：能源消费 累加生成 灰色系统 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：F224.[经济管理—国民经济]