三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化的复杂网络模型构建  

Construction of Complex Network Model of Ship Navigation Safety Risk Evolution in the Three Gorges Dam Area

作　　者：李龙浩 严庆新[1,2] 翁建军[1,2] 关宏旭[1,2] LI Long-hao;YAN Qing-xin;WENG Jian-jun;GUAN Hong-xu(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063

出　　处：《船海工程》2021年第4期137-140,共4页Ship & Ocean Engineering

摘　　要：为探寻三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化规律,构建三峡坝上航道船舶通航安全风险演化的网络拓扑结构,借助Matlab软件进行编程,模拟风险网络在蓄意攻击下的鲁棒性,通过比对风险网络在度值攻击、介数值攻击、接近度中心性值攻击和特征值攻击中的鲁棒性结果,找出风险网络的关键因素,仿真试验结果表明,三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险网络为无标度网络,面对蓄意攻击时具有较强的脆弱性,度值攻击时网络的鲁棒性最差,根据分析结果分别从切断风险演化模型中关键因素与根源因素的连接和缩短风险因素节点间的连边长度两个角度给出了相应的防控措施,可以有效预防船舶通航安全事故。In order to study the evolution rules of ship navigation safety risk in the Three Gorges Dam area,a network topology structure of the ship navigation safety risk evolution was constructed.The Matlab was used to program and simulate the robustness of the risk network under deliberate attacks.By comparing the robustness results of the risk network in degree-value attacks,median value attacks,proximity centrality value attacks,and eigenvalue attacks,the key factors of the risk network were identified.The results showed that the ship navigation safety risk network in the Three Gorges Dam area is a scale-free network,which has a strong vulnerability in the face of deliberate attacks;the degree of network robustness is the worst when attacked by degrees.According to the analysis results,the corresponding prevention and control measures were given from two perspectives of cutting off the connection between the key factors and the root factors in the risk evolution model and shortening the length of the connection between the risk factor nodes,which can effectively prevent the navigation safety accidents of ships.

关 键 词：三峡坝区 通航安全 风险演化 复杂网络 鲁棒性 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]