基于非参数估计的风电场储能容量优化研究  

Optimization Research of Wind Farm Energy Storage Capacity Based on Nonparametric Estimation

作　　者：王超平 刘海英[1] 贝前程 裴云成 WANG Chao-ping;LIU Hai-ying;BEI Qian-cheng;PEi Yun-cheng(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences),Jinan 250353,China)

机构地区：[1]齐鲁工业大学(山东省科学院)电气工程与自动化学院,济南250353

出　　处：《齐鲁工业大学学报》2021年第4期59-65,共7页Journal of Qilu University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(61601256)。

摘　　要：可再生能源因其独特的优势被越来越多的应用并入电网,但其随机性、波动性等会给电力系统带来一些负面影响甚至是大型故障,如电压的不稳定、风电系统暂态稳定性的改变等,从而导致风电功率预测结果的精确性低、储能装置容量配置不合理性。本文采用非参数核密度估计法,计算储能系统的额定容量、分析某风电场功率误差数据,以非参数核密度估计法求出约束条件下的置信区间并计算其储能容量对风电误差区间进行估计与合理的储能配置,进而达到消纳风电误差,提高预测的精确性的效果。仿真实验和算例证明了此方法的可行性。Renewable energy is more and more applied into the power grid because of its unique advantages,but its randomness and volatility will bring some negative effects to the power system,even large-scale faults,such as voltage instability,the change of wind power system transient stability and so on,resulting in low accuracy of wind power prediction and unreasonable capacity allocation of energy storage devices.In this paper,the nonparametric kernel density estimation method is used to calculate the rated capacity of the energy storage system,analyze the power error data of a wind farm,calculate the confidence interval under the constraint conditions by the nonparametric kernel density estimation method,and calculate the energy storage capacity,so as to estimate the wind power error interval and reasonable energy storage configuration,so as to eliminate the wind power error and improve the accuracy of prediction.The feasibility of this method is proved by simulation experiments and numerical examples.

关 键 词：风电预测 置信区间 非参数核密度估计 储能容量 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]