中国北方干湿过渡区生态系统生产力的气候变化风险评估  

Climate change risk assessment of ecosystem productivity in the arid/humid transition zone of northern China

作　　者：尹云鹤[1] 马丹阳 邓浩宇 吴绍洪[1,3] YIN Yunhe;MADanyang;DENG Haoyu;WU Shaohong(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Henan Province Development and Reform Commission,Zhengzhou 450018,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]河南省发展和改革委员会,郑州450018 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2021年第7期1605-1617,共13页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508805);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20020202,XDA19040304)。

摘　　要：气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多气候模式多情景数据,通过改进和验证Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)动态全球植被模型,辨识未来不同时段生态系统生产力的气候变化风险等级及其时空分布,明晰气候因子对净初级生产力(NPP)风险的作用特征。结果表明:未来中远期干湿过渡区生态系统生产力面临的气候变化风险面积将可能扩大,风险等级将可能提升,高排放情景下的风险更加严重,主要表现为NPP距平为负,且仍有继续下降的趋势。尤其是典型浓度路径(RCP8.5)情景下,81.85%的地区将可能面临气候变化风险,54.71%将达到高风险。2071—2099年,RCP8.5高风险区的NPP距平将达到(-96.00±46.95)gC m^(-2)a^(-1),NPP变化速率将达到(-3.56±3.40)gC m^(-2)a^(-1)。干湿过渡区东部平原和内蒙古东部草原区预估将可能成为风险主要集中区域,这些地区未来的植被生长将可能受到气候变化的不利影响,增温加剧和干旱程度加重可能是未来气候变化风险的重要驱动因素。Climate change risk has been a challenge for the development of society.As the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ)in northern China are characterized by sensitive and complex response to climatic fluctuations,assessing the climate change risk for ecosystems in the AHTZ is of scientific significance to regional climate governance and risk management.This study utilized the net primary productivity(NPP)as the indice for risk assessment.Based on the climate data of five global climate models(GCMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)and four Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),the NPP was simulated using an improved LPJ(LundPotsdam-Jena).A climate change risk assessment method was built to identify the climate change risk levels and their spatio-temporal distributions in the AHTZ at different periods in the future.Results show that NPP loss would gradually extend and aggravate the risk in the AHTZ from mid-term period to long-term period of the 21st century.The risk under the highemission scenario would be more serious,mainly manifested as a negative anomaly and a downward trend of NPP.In particular,under RCP8.5,81.85%of the area may face climate change risk,and 54.71%will reach a high risk.During 2071-2099,under RCP8.5,the NPP anomaly in the high-risk area will reach(-96.00±46.95)gC m^(-2)a^(-1),and the changing rate of NPP will reach(-3.56±3.40)gC m^(-2)a^(-1).The eastern plain of AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas.The future vegetation growth in these areas may be adversely affected by climate change.Increasing warming and intensifying drying may be important causes for future climate change risks.

关 键 词：气候变化 风险评估 干湿过渡区 净初级生产力 生态系统 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]