不连序系列的动态加权优化适线法  

Optimized Fitness Line Method Based on Dynamic Weight for Non-sequential Series

作　　者：程银才[1] CHENG Yin-cai(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering.Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第8期54-56,98,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对现行水文频率计算存在的3个问题,频率曲线各段拟合精度存在差异、采用矩法计算不连序系列统计参数前提假设及区别一般洪水与特大洪水假设的合理性,针对性地提出了解决问题的方法,即采用模糊数学原理估计适线法参数初值、根据隶属度大小区别特大洪水与一般洪水、依据洪水大小不同动态加权优化适线法。最后结合实例,采用加权的优化适线法进行频率计算。结果表明,所提方法可行,且精度较高,在工程实践上可参考应用。Aiming at the three problems existing in the current hydrologic frequency calculation method,including the difference of fitting accuracy of each section in the frequency curve,the rationality of using the moment method to calculate the non-sequential sequence series statistical parameters,and the rationality of hypothesis in distinguishing general flood from the extremely catastrophic flood,this paper puts forward the method to solve the problem.The estimating the initial parameter value of the fitness line method is proposed based on the principle of fuzzy mathematics.The extreme catastrophic flood is distinguished from the general flood according to the degree of membership.The fitness line method is optimized based on dynamic weight of flood.Finally,an example is given to calculate the frequency by weighting optimal fitness line method.The results show that the proposed method is feasible,and it has high precision,which can be used for reference in engineering practice.

关 键 词：不连序系列 加权 隶属度 优化 适线法 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]